Business

Britain Is Doomed To A Winter Of Discontent

Britain is doomed to a Winter of Discontent, warns Ukraine’s gas king

Ukraine’s pipeline chief has a stark winter warning for Britain: the geopolitics of Europe’s escalating gas war with Russia are intractable, and the coming supply crunch is likely to force brutal demand destruction in industry and homes.

Yuriy Vitrenko, head of the Ukrainian energy and pipeline nexus Naftogaz, said that Western capitulation to Vladimir Putin’s gas blackmail would embolden Russia to launch a full-scale war on former Soviet territory.

He warned that the Kremlin has taken advantage of an acute global gas shortage to weaponise flows to Europe. “Last year Gazprom booked 65bcm (billion cubic metres) of transit through Ukraine and this year it is only 40bcm. That’s why you are not getting your 25bcm of gas. It’s as easy as that,” he told The Daily Telegraph.

The alleged aim is to force German regulators to nod through a “quick and dirty” approval of the ultra-political Nord Stream 2 pipeline; or, failing that, to secure emergency “pre-certification” flows, which establish an irreversible dependency on the new Baltic route. Both options deprive Ukraine and Poland of self-defence leverage and change the balance of power in Eastern Europe.

“They had planned to ship 25bcm through Nord Stream 2 this year and didn’t expect it to be held up. So now they are withholding the gas. If that is not a gas war, I don’t know what is,” he said.

Britain is just as exposed as the rest of Europe to this Gothic drama, even though it buys very little gas directly from the Russian state monopoly Gazprom. “We have an integrated European gas market. Russian gas that goes to Germany or the Netherlands can go on physically to the UK. Prices are the same and they’re going up for the entire European market together,” he said.

“Nord Stream 2 is clearly not compliant with the letter and spirit of EU rules so they need to put pressure on the regulator, basically the German authorities. But it is part of a bigger geopolitical game: Putin is testing the Biden administration. It’s a very Soviet tactic, they were always testing the West like that,” said Mr Vitrenko.

Gazprom supplied normal volumes to Europe over the first half of the year but that was not enough to prevent stocks falling to drastically low levels following a wet, cold spring and the V-shaped economic recovery that caught forecasters off-guard.

Flows through the Ukraine pipeline system then dropped abruptly at the end of June, just at the moment when surging East Asian and Chinese demand was soaking up the global supply of liquefied natural gas.

Gazprom has since been working to rule, delivering basic contract volumes but not the usual season top-up flows. It booked almost no extra capacity for July, August, September, and now October. It has booked minimal amounts through the Polish Yamal pipeline, another twist that is seriously alarming markets.

Gazprom says it has made up much of the shortfall to Europe with extra flows through the southern Turk Stream pipeline, which opened last year. Whether this comes close to compensating is hotly disputed.

Mr Vitrenko says the Kremlin was emboldened after President Joe Biden overrode US Congressional sanctions against Nord Stream 2 and subsequently agreed to a fig-leaf deal with Germany’s Angela Merkel that gave Moscow what it wanted. “The Russians perceived it as a chance to increase pressure. Right after they started to withhold gas and prices sky-rocketed,” he said.

Mr Biden was arguably playing the “reverse Kissinger” card, hoping to dial down tensions with Moscow and head off a deeper strategic alliance between Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. But the accord has been bitterly criticised, decried as a latter day Yalta that throws Ukraine to the wolves.

Gazprom has made clear that Europe’s gas woes could end quickly if Nord Stream 2 is given the green light. Export chief Elena Burmistrova says the company “would be able to cover additional demand” once certification goes through. Kremlin officials have made similar noises.

Mr Vitrenko warned that giving in to energy blackmail would be to trade an immediate fuel crisis for an even bigger geopolitical crisis down the road. “If there are no longer any physical flows through Ukraine there will be a full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia,” he said.

Once Mr Putin is able to ship all his export gas to Europe via Nord Stream and other pipelines under his control, there will no longer be a deterrent. “Russia has a myriad of opportunities to provoke a war: by controlling separatists in the Donbas; or by creating a water supply crisis in Crimea, and claiming that it is intervening to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe,” he said.

“If there is a war we’re afraid that all we’ll hear from European politicians are expressions of ‘deep concern’ but Russia is not afraid of ‘deep concerns’,” he said.

Counter-pressure against Russia is building. Over 40 Euro-MPs have called on Brussels to investigate Gazprom for alleged price manipulation. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a rare statement saying Russia “could do more to increase gas availability to Europe” and should attend to its reputation as a “reliable supplier”.

Not everyone agrees that Gazprom can produce more gas quickly after running down investment in drilling and exploration. The old Cenomanian fields of Western Siberia dating back to the 1970s are in terminal decline. “Gazprom is firing on all cylinders to satisfy growing demand at home and abroad,” said Vitaly Yermakov from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“It cannot wave a magic wand and deliver extra gas to any place in Europe that requires it on short notice. No matter how hard Gazprom tries, it cannot single-handedly balance such a huge market as Europe,” he said. Russia needs to refill its own depleted inventories. Stocks were just 25bcm in late June, far short of the 75bcm deemed the safe threshold for the long winter.

Mr Yermakov says the whole structure of Russia’s industry is changing as the centre of gravity moves to new Arctic fields in the Yamal Peninsula. More gas is earmarked for Asia over time. Russia cannot quickly replace the 40bcm slide in Dutch output from the Groningen fields over the last five years.

It makes commercial and ecological sense for Gazprom to supply Europe through the upper Baltic route rather than piping the gas through leaky Soviet infrastructure into the Ukrainian nexus, which also entails extra transit fees. This transition creates a mismatch: the old Soviet system is in decay but the new Yamal system is not yet fully up and running.

Expert opinion is split. Most analysts agree with the IEA that Russia has been playing games with gas supply. “They could easily have pushed another 5bcm so far this year via Ukraine,” said Prof Thierry Bros, a former gas strategist at the French economy ministry and now at Sciences Po.

Prof Bros said storage in Europe would still have been low but at least within historical bands, eliminating some of the panic premium currently driving gas prices.

Mr Vitrenko said the argument that Gazprom cannot produce more contradicts the stated rationale for the Baltic pipeline. “If that were the case, you wouldn’t need Nord Stream 2 at all. Russia can easily ramp up production, not overnight perhaps, but I can remember times when daily flows through Ukraine were three times as much,” he said.

Whatever the commercial arguments, no major European state is likely to take Moscow’s word at face value after the invasion of Crimea. Gazprom has long served as an instrument of Kremlin geostrategy. The new Turk Stream infrastructure has dual military usage, with a sonar surveillance system installed.

Many in Europe clearly wish to secure gas whatever the political price. They are pushing for immediate pre-certification flows through Nord Stream 2 before the industrial core of the Ruhr Valley starts to shut down, and aborts the economic recovery.

But events in Washington have again intruded. The US House of Representative passed a fresh amendment last week demanding the reimposition of sanctions. If the Senate follows suit, the White House may be forced to act. “No one will buy gas from Gazprom going through Nord Stream 2,” said Mr Vitrenko.

Mr Vitrenko said the mix of tightening US policy, a Polish legal challenge within the EU and Mr Putin’s behaviour are all now conspiring to block the pipeline for the foreseeable future. The Greens may soon be in the German government. They want to axe Nord Stream 2 altogether.

“It’s now very unlikely to happen. German regulators know it would just be too noticeable. They have a rule of law in their country, and others do care, so they can’t just ignore it,” he said.

It could be a long painful winter for Europe and the UK. Utilities are turning frantically to biomass, booster compressor stations, and coal where they can, and potentially even to oil substitution in power plants. “Everything comes into play at these prices,” said Mr Vitrenko.

In the end there may have to be price rationing, nature’s cure in the energy markets. “Many industries are just switching off, as we are seeing with companies in the UK. Households adjust their consumption. They’ll be emergency measures by European governments,” said Mr Vitrenko

How long will this stand-off last? “Frankly, I don’t know. It is difficult to predict what is inside Mr Putin’s head,” he said.

Business

Dangote refinery commits to petrol price stability, reduction in Nigeria

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has reaffirmed its commitment to premium motor spirit price stability despite the fluctuations in global crude oil prices.

The 650,000 barrels per day refinery disclosed this in a statement on Monday by its spokesperson, Anthony Chiejiena.

This comes as crude oil prices dwindled around $63 to $65 per barrel while local petrol went between N910 per litre and N930 nationwide.

Reacting in a statement, Dangote Refinery said it is committed to alleviating the burden of fuel cost on Nigerians.

The company added that to the implementation of the Nigeria First Policy recently approved by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

“This decision reflects our unwavering commitment to supporting the Nigerian economy and alleviating the burden on consumers from the increase in fuel prices by maintaining price stability.

“It underscores our dedication to providing affordable, reliable, and high-quality petroleum products without compromising operational efficiency and sustainability.

“Our approach aligns with the objectives of the federal government’s Nigeria First policy, which promotes the prioritisation of locally produced goods and services.

“By refining petroleum products domestically at the world’s largest single-train refinery, we are proud to make a substantial contribution to Nigeria’s energy security, foreign exchange savings, and overall economic resilience—aligning with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which is focused on addressing the nation’s economic challenges and improving the well-being of Nigerians. We are immensely grateful to His Excellency, President Bola Tinubu, for making this possible through the commendable Naira-for-Crude Initiative, which has enabled us to consistently reduce the price of petroleum products for the benefit of all Nigerians.

“We assure all stakeholders—consumers, partners, and the government—of our continued dedication to operational excellence and national service.

“Dangote Petroleum Refinery remains committed to ensuring that the benefits of our local refining capacity are fully realised and enjoyed by the Nigerian populace. We will continue to prioritise affordability, quality, and national interest in every facet of our work,” the statement reads.

Recall that Tinubu approved the implementation of the Nigeria First Policy and ban on foreign goods.

Business

FAAC: FG, States, LGAs share N1.681tr in April

The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) has shared a total sum of N1.681 trillion, being April 2025 Federation Account Revenue to the Federal, States and the Local Governments at the May 2025 meeting held in Abuja.

The N1.681 trillion total distributable revenue comprised distributable statutory revenue of N962.882 billion, distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N598.077 billion, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) revenue of N38.862 billion and Exchange Difference N81.407 billion.

A communiqué issued by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) indicated that total gross revenue of N2,848.721 trillion was available in the month of April 2025.

Total deduction for cost of collection was N101.051 billion while total transfers, interventions, refunds and savings was N1066.442 billion.

According to the communiqué, gross statutory revenue of N2,084.568 trillion was received for the month of April 2025.

This was higher than the sum of N1,718.973 trillion received in the month of March 2025 by N365.595 billion.

Gross revenue of N642.265 billion was available from the Value Added Tax (VAT) in April 2025. This was higher than the N637.618 billion available in the month of March 2025 by N4.647 billion.

The communiqué stated that from the N1,681. 228 trillion total distributable revenue, the Federal Government received total sum of N565.307 billion and the State Governments received total sum of N556.741 billion.

The Local government Council received N406.627 billion, while the sum of N152.553 billion (13% of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting State as derivation revenue.

On the N962.882 billion distributable statutory revenue, the communiqué stated that the Federal Government received N431.307 billion and the State Governments received N218.765 billion.

The Local Government Councils received N168.659 billion and the sum of N144. 151 billion (13% of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting States as derivation revenue.

From the N598.077 billion distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue, the Federal Government received N89.712 billion, the State Governments received N299.039 billion and the Local Government Councils received N209.327 billion.

A total sum of N5.829 billion was received by the Federal Government from the N38.862 billion Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL).

The State Governments received N19.431 billion and the Local Government Councils received N13.602 billion.

From the N81.407 billion Exchange Difference, the communiqué stated that the Federal Government received N38.459 billion and the State Governments received N19.507 billion.

The Local Government Councils received N15.039 billion, while the sum of N8.402 billion (13% of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting States as derivation revenue.

Bawa Mokwa Director (Press and Public Relations) said in April 2025, Petroleum Profit Tax(PPT), Oil and Gas Royalty, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), Value Added Tax (VAT), Excise Duty, Import Duty and CET Levies increased significantly while Companies Income Tax (CIT) decreased considerably.

Business

‘We Will Keep Crashing Rice Prices,’ BUA Chairman Rabiu Warns Hoarders

The Chairman of BUA Group, Abdul Samad Rabiu, has pledged to further lower the prices of rice and other food items, which he said have already decreased over the past year.

He commended President Bola Tinubu for granting waiver on imported food items, saying that his “foresight” helped crash food prices in the country.

In July 2024, the Tinubu administration announced the suspension of customs duties on imported food items to stem food inflation.

Speaking to State House Correspondents after meeting with President Tinubu on Thursday, Rabiu said BUA Foods keyed into that policy and was able to import quite a lot of wheat, maize and rice.

“And the moment the shipment started coming, we started processing, we crushed the prices of some of these commodities. And today I’m happy to inform you that the price of rice is about N60,000 from what it was last year at N110,000. Flour is today N55,000 Naira per 50 kilo bag.

“Maize is about N30,000. And this happened because of Mr President’s foresight and vision by introducing that one-off duty waiver for a period of six months, and with that, we’ve been able to bring down the prices of these commodities,” Rabiu said.

The billionaire businessman further explained the causes of the food price increases and how the President’s policy helped to curb the trend.

“So, what has been happening and a lot of people probably don’t know this, is that Nigerians, a lot of companies in Nigeria usually buy a lot of paddy. That is rice paddy. Rice Paddy is what you use to process rice. So, the moment the harvest season starts, a lot of people will now buy a lot of these paddy and hold it for a period of three to four months. The moment the season finishes, then the price will double. So a lot of people don’t know that, but that has always been the problem.

“That does not really in any way affect the farmer, because the farmer is getting his four to N500,000 per ton of paddy. But the people that are buying and holding for three to four months, once the season finishes, it goes back up to N800,000. Hence why you are getting N110,000 per bag.
“So, what that intervention did at the time when we brought in was to create an issue for those hoarders. Because the moment we imported, we were selling, and those orders had a lot of paddy, they could not sell, and the price now came down, and it is still down.
So a lot of those holders are actually crying now and losing money.”

He said that the Rice Millers Association has come together to address the issue of hoarding by some companies, adding that the association will not allow any of its members to hoard rice.

“What we are doing as rice Millers is that we want to ensure that rice Millers are not buying and hoarding Paddy, although at the end of the day, it’s quite difficult to stop that. But what is happening is that once they know that there is rice availability imported, because BUA has imported enough rice to last us until the end of the year, for example.

“So, they know that if they try to hot rice and try to take it up, Bucha is there and will crash the price. So I am hopeful that at the end of the day, the price of rice going forward is not going to go any higher than what it is today.

“And I’m sure as soon as the season starts, the farmers will get the price they’ve always gotten, and the price of rice is going to stay the same, because people will be wary of hoarding, because if they hoard it is going to be a problem for them, because they might lose money. So that is on rice.

“And again, let me use this opportunity to thank His Excellency, for his foresight, for his vision, because I actually didn’t see that. I didn’t know that that was going to work, but we keyed in. We imported and we have supported, and now prices are down. So that is what we did, and we will continue to do to support the efforts of the government to ensure that food prices continue to come down. And I’m sure prices will come down.

“It is quite interesting that when prices were quite high, N100,000 everybody was shouting, now that prices are down or are coming down, it is like, nobody is coming out to say, look, food prices are coming down, but I’m happy to say that food prices are coming down, and they will continue to come down. That is what BUA foods is doing to support the efforts of the government in ensuring that food prices are down,” Rabiu said