Environment

Europe’s record summer ‘impossible’ without global heating

The heatwaves and wildfires that caused devastation in Europe this summer would not have happened without global heating, new analysis shows.

The summer of 2021 was the hottest on record in the continent, with average temperatures about 1C above normal. The elevated heat caused wildfires and premature deaths.

Researchers have calculated how much more likely the climate crisis made the high temperatures. For almost all of the past 150 years, the expected frequency of a European summer as hot as 2021 was no higher than once every 10,000 years.

But since the 1990s, as carbon emissions continued to soar, the expected frequency has rocketed to reach once every three years.

The analysis is a stark reminder to the leaders meeting at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow that global heating is causing terrible damage to lives and livelihoods. If countries do not achieve drastic reductions in carbon emissions by 2030 and hit net zero by 2050, the record heat of 2021 will strike every year by the end of the century, the scientists say.

Despite the extraordinary increase in likelihood of record heat in recent years, Nikos Christidis at the Met Office, who led the analysis, said: “These kinds of results are no longer surprising. Climate change is already making our weather extremes more severe.”

“Extreme events are the new norm,” said Prof Petteri Taalas, the head of the UN World Meteorological Organization. A European temperature record of 48.8C was set in Sicily in August. “Cop26 is a make-or-break opportunity to put us back on track,” Taalas said.

The analysis used 14 climate models and scores of model runs to calculate how frequently the record summer of 2021 is expected to occur in today’s human-influenced climate, compared with a climate with no human influence.

The research analysed the period from June to August and covered all of Europe, as far east as Yekaterinburg in Russia.

For large stretches of the 20th century, the estimated frequency of such a hot summer in a world without climate change was more than one in 10,000 years. “This event was so rare, it was nearly impossible to calculate a probability,” Christidis said.

The same scientific approach has shown clear links between global heating and other severe weather. The record-breaking heatwave in the Siberian Arctic in January and February 2020 was made at least 600 times more likely, while the terrible floods in Germany and Belgium in July were made up to nine times more likely.

Prof Peter Stott, also at the Met Office, said: “We can be more confident than we have ever been about linking extreme weather events to climate change. The science is clear that the faster we reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, the more we can avoid the most severe impacts.”

“The new study is another stark reminder of just what 1.2C [of global heating to date] means,” said Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, who conducted the Siberian study. “I really do not want to imagine the summers we’d have at 2.7C.” She said looking at large regions gives a stronger climate change signal than smaller areas.

Bob Ward, a policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics, said: “The study shows clearly that the severe intensity of this summer’s heatwave was due to man-made climate change resulting from the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities.

“The cost to humans and wildlife was substantial, with heatwave conditions killing people across the continent, and the enhanced evaporation of higher temperatures turning forests into fuel for devastating wildfires.

“These extreme temperature events in Europe will continue to increase in severity and frequency for at least the next 30 years, until the world reaches net zero emissions of greenhouse gases.”

Other previous studies have shown an extreme heatwave in 2017 that saw deadly forest fires blazing in Portugal and Spain was made 10 times more likely by global warming. In Portugal, 64 people died. Previous work has also demonstrated floods in England and France – as far back as 2000 – were made significantly more likely by global heating.

Environment

NEMA issues flood alert to Benue, Kogi, Anambra, four other states

The National National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has warned of impending flood in Benue, Kogi, Anambra, Delta, Imo, Rivers and Bayelsa.

The agency advised other States in the central and southern parts to prepare ahead of potential floods that may soon affect communities downstream.

Some of the actions to be taken to mitigate the impact of the flood, according to NEMA, include immediate clearing of blocked drainages, constructing temporary flood barriers and evacuation from flood plains to safe higher grounds.

The agency in a statement on Thursday night by the Head of Press Unit of NEMA, Manzo Ezekiel said: “Following the recent flood that impacted many communities across some states and rising water levels in River Benue and River Niger, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) advises states in the central and southern parts to prepare ahead of potential floods that may soon affect communities downstream.

“The advice has become imperative to activate the State, Local Government Authorities and communities to take necessary actions to mitigate against the risk of flooding and avoid the scale of losses recorded so far in areas that have been impacted, including loss of lives, displacement of communities, and significant damage to property and infrastructures.

“Specifically, the states that are highly probable to the hazard in next few weeks to come are Benue, Kogi, Anambra, Delta, Imo, Rivers and Bayelsa.”

On the expected actions to mitigate the impact, the agency stated: “Some of the actions to be taken include immediate clearing of blocked drainages, constructing temporary flood barriers and evacuating from flood plains to safe higher grounds”.

It also adviced communities to stay informed through weather updates and flood warnings from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA).

“Residents are advised to avoid crossing flooded areas, relocate from flood-prone zones, and cooperate with local emergency services.

“NEMA is working closely with state emergency management agencies and other relevant stakeholders through the National Emergency Operations Centre situated in the Agency’s headquarters to ensure that necessary support, including rescue and relief operations are available to affected communities.

“We urge all residents, especially in vulnerable areas, to heed our warnings and take immediate preventive measures to safeguard lives and property. Preparedness is key in reducing the impact of flooding.”

Business

Dangote Refinery to Power Nigeria’s Economy, End Fuel Scarcity, Save Forex – Gov. Abiodun …praises President Tinubu’s intervention

Governor Dapo Abiodun of Ogun State and Alhaji Aliko Dangote

Ogun State Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, said the commencement of fuel production by the Dangote refinery will strengthen the nation’s economy by eliminating constant shortages and conserving foreign exchange.

Petrol produced from the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery is expected to hit filling stations in the next 48 hours as modalities with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited have been formalized.

Prince Abiodun, in a statement on Tuesday signed by his Chief Press Secretary, Lekan Adeniran, said that with the refinery coming on stream, one of the most significant challenges faced by Nigeria for more than three decades—reliance on fuel importation—will be solved.

According to the statement, with the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries also being prepared to begin production, Nigerians will heave a sigh of relief from constant fuel shortages, while the economy will also receive a boost.

Prince Abiodun praised Alhaji Aliko Dangote for his determination in seeing through the multi-billion dollar projects against all odds.

The governor also commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his intervention in ensuring that the refinery comes on stream during his administration.

He praised the President’s commitment to the revitalization of other refineries in the country, which, he said, will drastically reduce fuel prices when all of them start production.

He said: “This significant achievement marks a transformative milestone not only for you as an entrepreneur but also for Nigeria and the broader African continent. The establishment of this refinery represents a pivotal shift in the energy landscape of the region, showcasing the power of vision, resilience, and unwavering commitment to economic development.

“The Dangote refinery is poised to be a game-changer in the production of petrol, addressing one of the most pressing challenges faced by Nigeria: reliance on imported fuel. This dependency has not only strained our foreign exchange reserves but has also hindered our potential for self-sufficiency.

“By producing petrol locally, the refinery will drastically reduce the outflow of foreign currency, thereby strengthening our economy. This move aligns perfectly with the President Bola Tinubu-led administration’s efforts to achieve economic diversification and reduce reliance on oil exports alone.

“Moreover, the economic impact of the refinery extends beyond just fuel production. It is expected to generate thousands of jobs, both directly and indirectly, thus contributing to the reduction of unemployment rates. The ripple effect of this employment generation will invigorate local economies, stimulate growth in ancillary industries, and enhance the livelihoods of countless families across Nigeria.

“In addition to bolstering local employment and economic activity, the refinery’s operations are expected to enhance energy security in Nigeria. With the capacity to produce a substantial volume of petrol, the country will be better equipped to meet its energy needs, reducing the volatility associated with fuel shortages and price fluctuations.

“This stability will inevitably create a more favorable environment for businesses and attract foreign investments, further boosting economic growth.”

Environment

Speaker Abbas sympathises with Zaria flood victims

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, has described the recent flooding incident in Sabon Gari Local Government Area of Kaduna State as tragic.

The heavy rainfall in the Kogin Mata and Tudun Muntsira, Chikaji areas of Sabon Gari, triggered the flood that occurred on Monday.

The Speaker’s media aide, Musa Krishi, in a statement on Tuesday, said Abbas sympathised with the flood victims and expressed sorrow that such a devastating incident struck at a time when people were striving to sustain their livelihoods.

According to him, “The deluge caused significant property damage and displaced numerous residents.”

Abbas called for urgent intervention to provide relief to those affected, urging the residents to remain calm as the government works to alleviate their suffering.

The Speaker then appealed to the National Emergency Management Agency and the State Emergency Management Agency to swiftly assist the flood victims.

He also advised residents of the affected and surrounding areas to take precautionary measures and follow guidance from relevant authorities regarding flood risks.

Abbas called for coordinated efforts to tackle the broader issue of flooding across the country.