Interview

Nigeria needs leader who can take tough decisions — Oshiomhole

In this interview with ADEBAYO FOLORUNSHO-FRANCIS, the Nigeria Labour Congress ex-president and Edo State two-term Governor, Adam Oshiomhole, discusses the All Progressives Congress’s Muslim-Muslim ticket and the state of the nation

What sort of leader do you think Nigeria needs at this critical moment?

We need a leader who can get the country together without being preoccupied with religion and ethnicity issues. We should strive to have a leadership that will engender a safe environment so that you can go to your church and worship while I can equally go to my mosque and worship. So you can visit your village and I can also visit mine, even though we are all Nigerians. That is the extent to which the issues of religion and ethnicity should be of concern: having the freedom to worship and the guarantee of safety to move around the country without fear or hindrance.

What gives you the impression you can succeed in the Senate?

I was the Edo State governor, which, to a certain extent, is like a miniature Nigeria. I come from a minority part of the state that had not produced an elected governor before me.

Because of my reputation, I got the backing of the majority ethnic group, I contested for re-election against a retired general from the majority ethnic group, yet the people supported me.

By the time I left office, a large majority of Edo people, regardless of their political affiliations, had a favourable assessment of my stewardship. Even till date, you can go to the streets of any city or village in Edo State and seek the people’s opinion about me.

How will you assess the chances of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in the 2023 election, especially with the Muslim-Muslim ticket?

By the special grace of God, he would win the next election and become president of Nigeria.

…With a Muslim Muslim ticket?

Yes, Nigeria is not all about Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian. The issues confronting us are not how many churches or mosques a Muslim-Muslim ticket will build.

Unfortunately, that is not the issue we have on the ground, and people believe you can continue to do the same thing and expect different outcomes. We can’t be bogged down by issues of religion and ethnicity. Each time you do that, you compromise on something else.

The finest hour of Nigerians as a people was when these issues didn’t matter and the crisis we are in today, trying to do all kinds of balancing and only when it suits us. People are quick to remind us with joy how in Rwanda today, there is no tribalism stating what they have accomplished after the genocidal war and detailing the economic and social consequences, with the economy growing in double digits and doing better than Nigeria. How are they beginning to attract foreign investments and booming tourism?

Today, it will require a man of courage to return Nigeria to the state it was in. We are a secular state and balancing won’t help us. I watched recently as a certain Senator was relating the Muslim-Muslim ticket to inhumanity. If he is a true believer in God, let him search his conscience to see the acts of inhumanity he has committed against his fellow beings. This is a man who beat up a young girl in a sex toy shop and caused a scandal that was an embarrassment to his family and the national assembly. If it was in other jurisdictions, he could not remain in the senate after the scandal.

Again, I saw another guy, who can’t deliver a unit in Rivers State, speaking against the Muslim-Muslim ticket without offering insight into why he is against it.

Are you saying Nigerians shouldn’t voice their disapproval and nurse their fear that we might as a multi-religious nation end up with a Muslim president, deputy, Senate president, Secretary-General, and House of Representatives Speaker?

Now you are quoting someone I know. He can choose to manipulate and play with the rules. It’s up to him, but it is most dishonest to say or make commentary that suggests that the incoming president and other top officials of the present administration are Muslims. These are just some elites wrestling with the truth to confuse the Nigerian victims.

Have you ever heard someone tell their housekeeper, “I’d like to eat an omelette, but please don’t touch my eggs. You know the value of those eggs?” ‘Yes sir!’ “Did you understand me? You must ensure I have an omelette tomorrow morning. Also, two visitors are coming, so make an omelette for three, but don’t touch my eggs.” Is it possible?

I think Nigeria has to move away from dysfunctional politics to a politics of issues. The amount of airtime and newspaper pages we devote to these issues and some, of course, who are opposed to Asiwaju, find this a ready excuse to attack him.

There is another man who has introduced another dimension recently. That should be Datti Baba-Ahmed, the running mate of presidential candidate Peter Obi. He said that he agreed that Asiwaju was a formidable politician with a good record.

However, he is one of those who entered into a partnership that brought President Muhammadu Buhari to power. Is that a crime, if I may ask?

What I would have wished to ask him, though, was if he knows how the partnership he has entered as a running mate will play out at the end. Only God knows that, no man has the power to know the future. As the saying goes, “Man proposes; God disposes.”

On a serious note, how many of the governors of the class of 1999 are still politically relevant? It is not because they don’t want to; it is just that they have faded into political irrelevance with time.

Many critics believe any serious Nigerian shouldn’t be discussing Tinubu’s presidency. What’s your position on this?

First, we need to ask what makes Asiwaju still relevant. I can share one or two things I know. You know that in 1999, the South-West rejected Obasanjo by their votes and he lost even his unit. OBJ lost all the South-West states but still became president. This is why nobody should play God in this business of elections. Only God knows who’s going to win. Now, talking about religion in the South-West, there are Christians and Muslims.

By 2003, Obasanjo was being harassed that he had no political base because he didn’t win his state. He became president courtesy of the other parts of Nigeria.

The generals may not have joined the conversation, but there were many postulations as to how he won.

In 2003, President Obasanjo wanted to make a statement that he also had his home base. He opened a negotiation with some South-West governors to support him, and in return, he would support them for their second term bid. They were all doing their first term at the time. At least once, I witnessed a conversation where Tinubu said, “No.” He was not going to make a deal with Obasanjo but insisted on working hard to win his election. He advised his colleagues that you can’t do a deal with this man.

However, his colleagues didn’t agree with him. They went ahead to support Obasanjo. The presidential election came first, and once OBJ was comfortable, he moved against Segun Osoba. While the PDP was rigging out all the AD South-West governors, Asiwaju was the only one that survived the onslaught. Is that not a fact?

And that was how the South-West became PDP and Asiwaju was the only AD governor then. Obasanjo moved to take over the AD and compromised a lot of its members. Asiwaju soon discovered that fighting within the AD where he was the only governor might just end in court and no one was sure how it would turn out. He decided to form a completely new party, which gave birth to ACN. Is that also not correct? And on the ACN platform he fought. I am sure the media won’t forget this in a hurry.

Professor Maurice Iwu changed the INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner twice within two months, changed electoral officers within 48 hours of the election and changed the commissioners of police. The last one came with 24 hours to go before the election, with one mandate to make sure Lagos becomes a PDP state.

Asiwaju fought hard and defeated Obasanjo. That was how Fashola became governor, and when you look at Fashola’s record, every effort invested in it was worth it.

Not only did he consolidate on Asiwaju’s performance, he also took governance to a whole new appreciable level. Asiwaju was not done. He re-launched his quest to reclaim the South-West, except for Lagos. And in the next election, he recovered a lot of the South-West states back to the ACN.

That was how Rauf Aregbesola, Kayode Fayemi, Ajibola Ajimobi, and Ibikunle Amosun came in.

I am familiar with this discussion because I was in the NLC. People could freely discuss in my presence because I was not partisan. So if someone has shown such courage and what Nigeria needs now is the courage to make difficult decisions, we must think out of the box, not regular politics.

Nigerians, on the one hand, want a tough, courageous leader. On the other hand, they want the same leader to be sensitive to all kinds of primordial issues.

Will the gale of defection going on in Rivers, Kaduna, Kebbi, and even in the Senate and House of Representatives, do you still fancy the chances of Tinubu?

For a deeper reflection, I will ask you: Is this the first time people are defecting? In fact, we now have on record that the only office that has not witnessed defectors is the president’s office.

Even the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, defected from the PDP while he was vice president. The matter went to court, but did that stop Obasanjo from winning and even being succeeded by another PDP president in the person of the Late Umaru Yar’adua?

Defection, unfortunately, is part of our system. Although it is not supposed to be celebrated, it just points to the poverty of ideology in our political party formations.

There are more serious contradictions than I’ve seen but I don’t want to talk about them now because it’s not yet time for political campaigns according to the INEC timetable.

There are a lot of more important policies and individuals fitting into parties that you know but when we get there, we will discuss it.

To be honest, it is not a helpful conversation, and I’m not worried because I have seen a lot of big names, powerful people depending on your definition of power, saying this is what they want and they even go ahead to endorse somebody in another political party, yet, the person they endorsed didn’t win in the end. I don’t think anyone is against the endorsement.

Meanwhile, you people (the media) will do loud headlines as if the world has come to an end.

I think the ordinary Nigerian artisans, carpenters, bricklayers, vulcanisers and the unemployed youth just want somebody who can give them jobs. I don’t think they care about the religion of who wins. The real long-term solution is to make radical economic decisions and social policies.

Interview

Olubadan: Osinbajo, govs, Alaafin, Ooni, others present as Balogun’s coronation begins

Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Chairman, Nigerian Governors’ Forum are among the prominent Nigerians that have arrived for the coronation of Senator Lekan Balogun as the 42nd Olubadan of Ibadanland.

Ogun State Governor, Dapo Abiodun; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; Ondo State Deputy Governor, Lucky Ayedatiwa and Osun State Deputy Governor, Benedict Alabi are also some of the prominent citizens in attendance.

The Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi; Ooni of Ife, Adeyeye Ogunwusi; Oluwo of Iwoland, Rasheed Akanbi; and Olugbo of Ugbo, Oba Fredrick Akinruntan are also present.

The new Olubadan has been ushered into the venue.

Security is very tight at the venue as many dignitaries are having difficulty entering into the venue

Indigenes of Ibadan, as well as residents and well-wishers, have started trooping in their hundreds to the Mapo Hall, venue of the installation ceremony of Oba Olalekan Balogun, as the 42nd Olubadan of Ibadanland.

The News Agency of Nigeria reports that other prominent Nigerians, especially sons and daughters of Ibadanland; politicians, captains of industries, and a flock of tourists and stakeholders — home and abroad, graced the occasion.

Many associations, in different colorful outfits, are seen within and outside the Mapo Hall premises — venue of the event, dancing to the indigenous Yorùbá music of Ibadanland.

No fewer than four popular Yorùbá musicians including an Ibadan-based Fuji maestro, have set their stages to entertain dignitaries and well-wishers at the kingly occasion.

A visit to the Ali-Iwo Compound, where the new Olubadan hails from, shows that ceremonial activities are afoot, as choral groups are seen singing in praises of the Ali-Iwo Family.

Traditional drummers and native praise-singers, with scores of sight-seers, are also sighted at different spots on the Oje-Beere-Oja-Oba axis.

Meanwhile, there is a heavy deployment of security operatives to some strategic locations within the Metropolis, especially the roads leading to the venue of the event.

Correspondents of NAN, monitoring the situation, also observe the presence of teams of Nigerian security agencies including the NSCDC, Operation Burst and Amotekun personnel, gallantly deployed to prevent a breakdown of law and order.

Also, officers of the Oyo State Fire Service are on ground at the venue to tend to any fire incident.

Major roads leading to Mapo Hall have been blocked, while commuters are trekking a circuitous distance in getting to their destination and venue of the ceremony.

Also observed is the presence of traditional worshipers a few metres away from the venue chanting, dancing and ecstatic about the auspicious ceremony.

Business

The Amazing Story of Adeshola Cole – The CEO of the London-based Tritek Consulting Limited

Adeshola Cole is the CEO of the London-based Tritek Consulting Limited, a multi-award-winning project management and business analyst training company. In this interview, the Lagos State University graduate of English and Literature told an amazing story of her life’s odyssey.

Born in Hackney, London, she was raised in a foster home in Birmingham where she endured racial and emotional abuse. She also encountered ‘weird’ culture shocks during the transition to Agege suburb in Lagos, where pupils mocked her cockney accent before returning to London where the journey began. The 40 years old mother of three narrated her existential struggles and triumph. Today, she sits atop a thriving company that is helping hundreds rediscover new career path in a digital age.

The Managing Editor and CEO of The Harmattan News, Sylvester Atere and his crew put this together for your enjoyment. Please, sit back and enjoy it.

THN: Good morning

Tritek CEO: Hi good morning

THN: We are here to meet and interact with you. This is The Harmattan News. Who is Adeshola Cole?

Tritek CEO:
My name is Adeshola Cole. I am married with three children. I am the CEO of Tritek Consulting Limited, which is a multi-award-winning project management and business analyst training company. I had my university in education in Nigeria. I went to Lagos State University and my primary education here in the UK. I was born in Hackney to be precise to Nigerian parents. So, that’s me in a nutshell.

THN: Alright. I’ll start by asking, are you familiar with the phrase ‘Mondays are for setting the scene for the rest of the week. If affirmative, how does that define you as a person?

Tritek CEO:
Absolutely! Mondays are very important for setting the scene because I feel like if you have a good Monday then it sets the tone for the rest of the week. I know ultimately a lot of us don’t like Mondays after you’ve had a long weekend etc. But I think for me, Monday is all about getting yourself mentally prepared on what you want to achieve for the week and how you’re going to get there. And the moment you have a fantastic Monday the chances are the rest of the week are going to be seamless.

THN: That’s interesting. For you what is the key success factor needed to succeed in life?

Tritek CEO:
You have to have confidence in yourself. Sometimes you get rejected for many reasons. And you use that rejection to come back and bounce back 10 times better. You have to be determined; determined to achieve whatever it is that you want to achieve. You have to believe in yourself. You have to be passionate in whatever you put your mind into. what decisions you want to make you have to be passionate about wanting to achieve what you want to achieve.

THN: This one you have actually addressed in a way but I want to talk more about it. How would you react to description of you as a multi-award-winning tech-entrepreneur and mentor?

Tritek CEO:
I am very honoured. I am very humbled. I never in a million years thought that I would get such recognitions and the awards. But that I guess it is a testament to how I helped in the community. It is a testament to be recognised for helping our community to secure high paying roles within the IT industry. I am very proud and I think that award is not just for me but also for my team, my staff and the candidates themselves who have gone on to secure roles.

THN: Would you like to speak more about the mentorship side of what you do?

Tritek CEO:
Yes. Absolutely! So, I discovered my passion in mentorship in my latter years. It was not something that I discovered earlier in my career. But to mentor people in instilling confidence in themselves and giving them that push is the best feeling ever. When you’re mentoring someone, to me it’s a blessing because your mentoring someone to at achieve that career and the goals they want to achieve, and ultimately is a fulfilment for me as well.

THN:
I listened to your Podcast. For me it appears to be a testimony of your life’s odyssey. It was full of suspense and dramatic twist of the good, the bad and the ugly. It combines a little element of Charles Dicken’s Great Expectations and Charlottes Bronte’s Jane Eyre. It depicts the grim and the gloom of hopelessness, the abuse, the bullying and racial slur. And coming to terms with your paternal reality are enough to breakdown even someone with a heart of stone. Yet, you overcame. How did you do it? How did you re-invent yourself?

Tritek CEO:
It’s been an amazing journey. I think I have to give credit to my family; my mother for making that decision to make sure that I went back home to have a turn-around in my life. I think with every negativity, or with every challenge that you go through, it’s important to come back or bounce back 10 times better. I will properly say that at that time my entire family lacked any belief in me because of the person that I was at the time. So ultimately, I had to come back and bounce back and prove to myself and to them that they made the right decision. I know that my mother’s very proud of the woman that I have now become. And also my grandmother because I lived with my grandmother when I in Nigeria. But if I look back at the life that I went through and the abuse that I went through and the racial abuse that I went through and look at me now, I think that is a testament to everybody out there that you might be going through one thing or another, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

THN: Is your foster mum still alive?

Tritek CEO:
When I left she was in her 80’s. So I guess that she’s probably passed away now. But I think for a closure for myself I would one day would like to go there with my children. I think for me that would be a closure. That’s because the way that I left was very abrupt. Which I guessed was the best decision at that time. But I want to go there with my kids; just closure. I think that’s needed.

: Photos: Daniel Atere

: Photos: Daniel Atere

THN:
Do you want to speak more about the experience of moving to Nigeria at 11. Looking back today, how was would you describe the transition from England to Nigeria; especially, living in Agege neighbourhood in Lagos with mosquitos and all of that?

Tritek CEO:
It was a massive culture shock. I wasn’t even living in London at the time. I was living in Birmingham; speaking proper Cockney; you know very strong Cockney accent. Obviously, to get me to Nigeria my parents had to lie that I was going to France. So, mentally I wasn’t prepared for anything related to Africa because at that time the way the Africa was depicted in the news wasn’t very great. And getting to Africa and living with my grandfather. He was a polygamist. There were so there were so many wives and children coming in and out. That was confusing in itself. I think the biggest challenge for me was getting into school. So I had to start in a secondary school. I went to Ifako International. The punishments, the cane, the wipping was weird to me. Then my accent was also so strong because I had a broomy accent. And I remembered sometimes, my grandmother had to follow me to school and complained. It was weird. That in itself was a culture shock. And then, gradually, I began to get accustomed to the education there and the culture there. Then I went to the Lagos State University (LASU). LASU itself was another culture shock. So, I was able to adapt. I think eventually I had to go with the flow. And my family did not allow me to come back to the UK till they were absolutely sure that I was a change human being. I think, all in all, um wow some things. I remember the first time I got to Nigeria and it was pitch back and I could see candles. It didn’t make sense to me. And all these women who later turned out to be my grandmother and my mum’s sisters just running and hugging all of us in wrappers. It was a weird scenario. But hey! Here I am now. And I embraced the Nigerian culture totally.

THN:
Going to LASU you said was another issue entirely? What informed your choice of the course that you pursued there?

Tritek CEO:
I think at the time I wanted to be a politician. So, I actually wanted to study political science. But you know how it is getting into a university in Nigeria. I think literature in English was the only option that I had. But to be honest, I’ve always been a writer. In my prime years here in the UK, I used to win awards for writing stories and poems and things like. So, I think English Language and Literature for me is who I am. Even though it was a coincidence, I think that was best suited for me. I don’t think I would have gone very far being a politician in Nigeria.

THN:
What about being a politician in the UK? Is that a possibility?

Tritek CEO:
Who knows? Who knows? I think that I would actually be very good.

THN:
Now, you studied English Language and Literature at the Lagos State University like you rightly said, but ended up in the financial sector in the UK. What motivated you? Or was it just by accident or by chance?

Tritek CEO:
It was by chance. I came back when I was allowed to come back for holidays before coming back finally. I was doing odd jobs in hotels doing cleaning and in bakeries and bars. And when I came back finally I got a job in a betting company. To be honest it was just to make ends meet and then from there I found myself in the bank. Again, just to make ends meet. But I think ultimately, what I’m doing in Tritek is a true reflection of me. Loving to write because I love to write articles. So, in a way I think I am using that degree to some extent.

THN:
Tell us about Tritek. How did it happen?

Tritek CEO:
Waoh! Umm…Tritek came about when I was pregnant with baby number three. That was in 2017. And honestly speaking, and I say this every single time it was just created as something get me by; to pay my bills and just do something as hobby. I never in a million years thought or believed that Tritek would expand or grow the way that it has. So, when I created it, I remember very vividly, there were just two candidates. And now we’ve gone over 1000 candidates on the platform. Tritek is a multi-award-winning company and I think that is because of the amount of success stories that we have amassed over the years. As at the moment we have over 300 success stories since Tritek has been established. And even till now I still refer to Tritek as my little baby. I think in hindsight I know it’s a lot bigger than what I think it is. But I still refer to it as my little baby. I guess not facing reality, it’s actually getting bigger. It’s amazing to see what we’ve done. It’s amazing to see the amount of success stories that we’ve had and how we are making an impact. Especially, within the African community.

THN:
Like how many have trained altogether between 2017 and now?

Tritek CEO:
Over 1000. Yes.

THN:
With regards to the success stories, I know the COVID-19 came last year, how was the impact on business?

Tritek CEO:
Do you what? I was very very very apprehensive. As a business owner, you would be; fear of the unknown. But if I must be honest with you, COVID has been very good to the business. Having to move everything online, the introduction of virtual training, these are things that we would never ever thought of doing. Prior to COVID, everybody would travel down to our venue in Enfield for training. And what meant was that people in Scotland or Ireland or even abroad would not be able to join the training. But now we have a global presence because anybody in the world can join the platform. I think for me COVID has been very good to us because it moves everything online and now everybody can attend.

So, it’s been fantastic. And not just that we are also able to employ people back home as well which is very fantastic.

THN:
What are the challenges of this venture?

Tritek CEO:

Waoh! Keeping people happy. I am human at the end of the day. I think because it’s not so busy especially after COVID, been able to keep on top of everything because our numbers are increasing. You cannot please everyone. This is why I am very firm that I would never guarantee that I would somebody a job.

So when some people come to the and they don’t get what they want it can be a bit disheartening for me as well because at the end of the day I care for everybody’s development. Staff challenges; again you just make sure that you employ people that will carry your vision of what Tritek is all about. Many challenges. Mentally, not having rest because you are constantly working around the clock. Yeah! Lots of challenges.

THN:
Respect, respect, respect. You said give respect, get respect because respect is reciprocal. How are you managing the human side of the business, because the greatest asset is the human capital. How are you getting on top of that?

Tritek CEO:
Everybody is different. So the way I will handle one candidate will be different to the way that I will handle another one. I think is important to have governance processes in place and that is something I will continue to enforce. I think just being strict around what is accepted and what is not accepted. For example, WhatsApp for me is limited. If you want to reach me or you have a grievance or complaint, just put it in an email. We are just ensuring that we are displaying professionalism at all times. It is hard. But I always ensure that the candidates understand that you’re not just joining the platform to get the IT experience. You are also joining to work on your soft skills. Your communication skills, your professionalism and how you relate to each other. So that when you do get your jobs you won’t find it a challenge in the real world.

THN:
What are the plans for the future in terms of expansion?

Tritek CEO:
Prior to the COVID, we were planning to go to Nigeria. We probably don’t need to do that any longer. I have started to introduce new courses so recently we relaunched data analysis. And just last week we introduced DevOps and cloud computing. I think for me it’s baby steps because I do not want to move away from what Tritek is ultimately about. But I think more courses and eventually, I will like to work on leadership training as well after people who have they don’t just wanna be a project manager. They want to manage and lead people. So, that is something that I’m looking into. Who knows, maybe building or launching an IT company in Nigeria or a training company in Nigeria for people that just want to have that training. Again, so many things going on in my head right now. But I always like to take baby steps.

THN:
You are a wife, a mother, a daughter and a businesswoman. How do you juggle all that?

Tritek CEO:
Wow, um, it is a challenge because I have three children. The oldest is 12. She understands that mummy is busy and mummy is working hard. And I think, in a way that will help her when she’s older because she’s already saying ‘mum you know, I wanna set up my own business when I’m old. And I’m like waoh! That is good to see. It’s a challenge because I feel 90 per cent of what I do is around Tritek to be totally honest with you. But I do make time for family time when I can. I’ll be staying with my hobby and the children. This is why sometimes I have days off in the week where I just switch off completely and give them the time that they need as a mother and as a wife and as a daughter as well.

THN:
You mentioned offshore sourcing and recruiting the skills needed to be part of the dream and vision of Tritek. Can you tell us more about the plans to get that done?

Tritek CEO:
Absolutely! I am open to anywhere in the world. But I think the reason why my main focus is Nigeria is that I just feel that there is so much level of intelligence especially on the youth of today. And certainly, I don’t think that is being utilised. And I think since the onset of COVID, I have employed all of my software developers from Nigeria. The youngest is just 18 years old.

THN:
I was about to ask for the details of the developers, especially those on board Project Triface and Project Emporium.

Tritek CEO:
Yes. That’s Eyimofe and Orimolade. Orimolade is 20. He was onboard a few weeks ago and he worked on Project Timporium. Rayola is just 18 years old. He just recently completed the first facial recognition project. And yes, they are all getting paid. For me, I feel like I’m giving back. These guys are so young but when I interviewed them and realise what they could bring to the table I was blown away.

Not just that, my social media marketers is also from Nigeria. Again a very young guy, a guy that does all my designs on my content. Again and not a very young guy in Nigeria. I have just taken on a team leader who is absolutely fantastic, Chidera. I was blown away when I interviewed her and I’m so excited to see what she can bring to Tritek. And I have just taken another project coordinator, David Aina, from Nigeria as well. I interviewed them, again, I was blown away with the amount of intelligence and the skillset back home. And for me, I want to utilise them a lot more.

THN:
Is there any other thing you would want the public to know about Tritek?

Tritek CEO:
Yeah, I’m enjoying Tritek. I have a look at what we do I think this is just the beginning for us. I think there will be a lot more success stories and many more opportunities to come. If you listen to my story, I use every rejection and every negativity to take one step farther to get to where you need to be and don’t let anybody tell you that you cannot do it. I heard that so many times. Especially, where I was working previously. Before I made that decision to do what I wanted to do. If it feels right, just do it.

Interview

Nigel Farage’s Brexit party saved Labour seats in 2019 election, analysis finds

Nigel Farage’s Brexit party may have saved up to 25 Labour seats in the Midlands and the north at the 2019 general election, denying Boris Johnson a landslide majority of 130, according to new analysis.

Farage’s party failed to win a single seat in December 2019 as Boris Johnson sought to hammer home the message that the Conservatives would “get Brexit done”.

But elections experts John Curtice, Stephen Fisher and Patrick English say that by attracting Leave-supporting former Labour voters who might otherwise have backed the Conservatives, Farage may have significantly cut the scale of Labour’s defeat.

By modelling the behaviour of Labour Leavers elsewhere, they suggest that in the absence of a Brexit party candidate, 70% would likely have turned to the Tories and 30% stuck with Labour. Meanwhile, Conservative voters who switched to Farage’s party were likely to have voted for Johnson.

“As a result, the Brexit party may have cost the Conservatives about 25 of the seats that Labour managed to retain – most of them Leave-voting seats in the north of England and the Midlands – and thereby enabled Labour to avoid an even heavier loss of seats,” they say in a new book, The British General Election of 2019, published on Tuesday.

Labour’s performance was already its worst in terms of seats won since 1935, prompting Jeremy Corbyn’s resignation after a chaotic campaign. The Brexit party stood its most prominent candidate, Richard Tice, in Labour-held Hartlepool where he took more than 10,000 votes but came in behind Labour and the Conservatives. The seat fell to the Tories in a byelection this year, raising questions about Keir Starmer’s ability to win back the so-called red wall.

Farage repeatedly sought an electoral pact with Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019, offering to stand aside in Tory-held seats in exchange for a free run in former Labour heartlands constituencies.

With no deal forthcoming, he unilaterally decided not to field candidates in seats where there was an incumbent Tory MP. This move had less of an effect on the UK-wide result, the authors say – but it did have an impact in a few key seats that the Tories only narrowly held.

“There was just a handful of seats where the decision of the Brexit party to stand down might have helped avoid a Conservative defeat, though they include the seats of two prominent Brexiters, Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford & Wood Green) and Dominic Raab (Esher & Walton).” The Liberal Democrats are heavily targeting Raab’s Surrey constituency, which he held by just 2,700 votes.

Edited by academics Tim Bale, Robert Ford, Will Jennings and Paula Surridge, the new book is the latest edition of what is widely viewed as the definitive academic guide to general elections, with the first edition published in the wake of Labour’s landslide victory in 1945.

By analysing constituency-by-constituency results, and responses to the British Election Study internet panel, covering 30,000 voters, Curtice, Fisher and English show that Brexit heavily skewed the outcome in contests right across the country.

“The Conservatives’ share of the vote increased by nearly six [percentage] points on 2017 in seats that are estimated to have backed Leave most heavily in 2016, while the party’s vote fell by a couple of points in constituencies where most had voted Remain,” they say.

By contrast, they add: “While Labour’s vote fell by six points where most voters had backed Remain, it dropped by nearly nine points where a majority had supported Leave.”

They say this pattern was “disruptive of much of the existing geography of party support” so that “all of Britain’s parties often recorded some of their best performances in relatively unfamiliar territory” – including the Conservatives’ advances in the North and Midlands.