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Nuclear submarines will not deter China from conflict with Taiwan

Taiwan

Nuclear submarines will not deter China from conflict with Taiwan, but Australia has an alternative arsenal

Six days after China applied to join the CPTTP, Taiwan submitted its own application.

For an emerging superpower prone to petulant outbursts and coercive retaliation, China’s initial response to the recent announcement of the new three-way security pact between Australia, the United States and Britain seemed surprisingly tepid.

Hours after the trio unveiled their “forever partnership”, known as Aukus, China formally requested that it be allowed to join an 11-member Asia-Pacific trade grouping, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

This was an odd move by China, whose application requires the consent of the grouping’s members, which include Australia. In recent years, China has responded to previous perceived slights from Canberra by imposing economic sanctions worth $20bn and freezing ministerial contacts.

Now, it was effectively seeking a favour from Canberra, even though Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, had just announced plans to buy nuclear submarines and signalled that he was seriously preparing for the possibility that US-China tensions will spill into war.

But China’s application to join the trade pact was carefully timed. It allowed China to demonstrate its commitment to global free trade and to contrast its approach with that of the US, which withdrew from the grouping.

More significantly, China’s application was primarily designed to head off a long-awaited bid by Taiwan to join. China, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, regularly tries to prevent other states dealing with Taiwan at an official level.

Taiwan’s chief trade negotiator John Deng told reporters: “If China joins first, Taiwan’s membership case should be quite risky. This is quite obvious.”

This wrangling over the CPTTP attracted less attention than the Aukus announcement, but it highlights a crucial feature of the frightening rise in tensions between China and the US.

China, in its quest for “reunification” with Taiwan, is playing on two separate battlefields.

First, and most blatantly, it is expanding its military at a frantic pace and using its air force and navy to intimidate Taiwan. In the past week, for instance, China has set an almost daily record for its fighter jet interventions into Taiwan’s air defence zone.

Last Friday, on China’s national day, it sent 38 planes towards Taiwan; on Saturday, it was 39; on Monday, it was 56. The US, a close backer and arms supplier of Taiwan, described China’s flights as “provocative”.

But China is also operating on a separate front. It is trying to isolate Taiwan on the world stage and to ensure that Taiwan’s status is downgraded in international diplomatic and economic arenas. So, as Morrison was still speaking to the Australian media about Aukus and submarines, the Chinese commerce minister wrote to the New Zealand government – which holds formal documents relating to the CPTTP – to join the group.

The lesson for Australia is that, as US-China ties deteriorate, it needs to avoid picking the wrong battlefield.

As the gap between China’s military and Australia’s widens, it is unlikely that Australia’s capability – even with a fleet of nuclear submarines, supplied by its Aukus partners – will determine the balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific.

Despite being the world’s 12th biggest-military spender, Australia’s annual defence budget is now just 10% of China’s.

Australia plans to have the first of its eight nuclear submarines in the water by the late 2030s. China, which has the world’s largest navy, currently has a fleet of about 62 submarines, including 12 that are nuclear-powered.

By 2040, it is due to have 26 nuclear submarines. The US currently has 68 submarines; all are nuclear-powered. Australia’s submarines and other forces can be used for a variety of purposes, including defence of the Australian mainland – but, in the terrifying case of a standoff over Taiwan, they will not be decisive.

Yet, on the other battlefield, Australia’s capabilities are more imposing. In the arena of international trade and diplomacy, Australia, which is the world’s 13th largest economy and – historically – a committed supporter of strong international institutions, has genuine clout.

Australia has worked to create and strengthen bodies such as Apec, which includes China and Taiwan, and the G20, which includes China only.

The CPTTP exists largely because Australia, along with Japan, worked to save it after Donald Trump pulled out in 2017. Now China is seeking to join.

The Chinese embassy – which famously released a 14-point list of grievances with Canberra – has written to the Australian parliament to make its case, saying China’s membership would “yield large economic benefits”.

Australia responded hesitantly, insisting that China should not be allowed to join the CPTPP until it meets its international trade obligations and lifts its current sanctions on Australian exports such as beef, wine and barley.

Australia will hold further sway as it considers whether Taiwan should be allowed entry. China says Taiwan should not be allowed to join the grouping or any other official organisation.

Australia should deploy its clout in the international arena carefully. It can try to encourage an easing of US-China tensions and to discourage provocations.

Taiwan is warning that war is looming. But Australia will be able to do little to alter the course of an actual conflict.

Instead, it can join others to deliver a strong message to China about the potential cost of an attempt to take Taiwan by force.

Australia’s yet-to-be-commissioned submarines will not dissuade Beijing from military intervention, but it has an alternative arsenal that currently seems to be more successful in demanding China’s attention.

Jonathan Pearlman is editor of Australian Foreign Affairs.

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Gov Bago signs Executive Order on Niger Green Economy

Governor Umaru Bago of Niger State has signed an Executive Order on the Green Economy.

The Executive order which was titled ‘the Niger State Green Economy Initiative Order (No.3), 2023’ provides that the Green Economy Initiative shall be driven by the State Blueprint that details the strategic pillars and outlines the strategic key performance indicators, targets and timelines of the transition into a green economy.

Also enshrined in the Order, Niger State Government shall produce a State-Wide Land Use and Economic Development Plan to guide investment decisions and ensure investments that would stabilise the green transition are properly coordinated and planned.

The Order further directed all the Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of the State to adhere strictly to the initiative, adding that appropriate sanction will be carried out on any violator of the Executive Order.

Singing the Executive Order shortly before the commencement of the weekly State Executive Council (SEC) Meeting at the Council Chambers, Government House, Minna, Governor Bago explained that the Executive Order was to ensure the effective implementation of the Green Economy Policy.

Governor Bago appreciated Media Practitioners for the wide coverage given to his administration and encouraged them not to relent.

Recall that the Present administration initiated the Green Economy Policy, and hosted the first summit on initiative with the view to turn around the economy of the State and engender socio-economic development.

According to the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Bologi Ibrahim, “With the signing of Executive Order Three, the initiative has come to stay and its implementation is sacrosanct.”
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COP28: President Tinubu Meets King Charles in Dubai

President Bola Tinubu on Thursday met with King Charles III of England in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Both of them are in the country to participate in the United Nations Climate Conference known as COP28 taking place in the Emirati city.

Tinubu posted a message on his X account, on the meeting, describing the king as passionate climate advocate.

He posted: “I had a productive meeting with His Majesty, King Charles III of England who is also the Head of the Commonwealth, and a passionate climate advocate.

“The meeting was a significant step in strengthening the partnership between Nigeria and the United Kingdom, and I am optimistic about the positive impact our joint efforts will have on our planet’s future as we look forward to setting an equitable global standard for environmental stewardship at COP28.”
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Police Rescue Abducted Plateau Pastor, Three Others in Bauchi

Operatives of the Nigerian Police, Bauchi State Command have rescued four kidnapped victims including a pastor. 

The victims were kidnapped by bandits who invaded Raddi village via Bassa Local Government Area of Plateau State on Wednesday, November 29.

The state Police Public Relations Officer, Ahmed Wakil, a Superintendent of Police, disclosed this in a statement made available to journalists.

Wakil said the bandits had stormed the house of one Yakubu Makeri, of Yagi village via Rahama ward, to attack him but a team of operatives attached to Rishi Police Divisional Headquarters in conjunction with local vigilantes swiftly moved to the scene and engaged the bandits in a gun battle.

The statement read, “On November 29, 2023, at about 1am, one sabitu ‘m’ of Kadade village via Toro LGA of Bauchi State reported that on the same date at about 12.30am, an unknown number of bandits invaded their village and stormed the house of one Yakubu Ya’u Makeri, male, of Yagi village via Rahama ward.

“A team of operatives attached to Rishi Police Divisional Headquarters in conjunction with local vigilantes swiftly moved to the scene and engaged the bandit.

“The operatives overpowered the bandits in a gun duel. As a result, one of the bandits was neutralised while the remaining scampered and abandoned their mission.

“However, during the encounter, the operatives succeeded in rescuing three kidnapped victims, namely: Pastor Bala, male (50), Keziya Ayuba (50) and Sunday Ayuba, (40) all of Raddi village via Bassa Local Government Area of Plateau State.

“The aforementioned victims were confirmed to have been kidnapped from their village in Jos, Plateau State.”

Wakil stated that the Commissioner of Police has ordered the Divisional Police Officer to intensify wider patrol across the area in a bid to arrest the fleeing bandits so they can face the full wrath of the law.

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