Environment

The UK’s 2035 net zero electricity target: how could it be achieved?

As Boris Johnson confirmed plans to decarbonise the electricity grid by 2035, the UK was sourcing almost 40% of its power from fossil fuels, underscoring the scale of the challenge ahead.

The government’s target, announced on Monday with less than a month until the start of the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow, is a key component of its pledge to reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

That broader effort will probably involve much more widespread use of electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps in the home, meaning the UK must generate much more power but with far lower emissions. The challenges involved are monumental.

How much electricity do we use?

Demand was just under 35 gigawatts (GW) on Monday but that can rise to about 58GW at peak, on cold winter days. Expressed over the course of a year, the UK used about 330 terawatt hours last year, 5% down on 2019, when the coronavirus pandemic dampened demand. By 2035, demand is projected to reach 460 terawatt hours, an increase of almost 40%.

How green is our electricity now?

Last year, wind and solar produced a record proportion of UK electricity, at 43%, eclipsing fossil fuels, at 40%, for the first time. The rest was largely supplied by nuclear power and imports through subsea interconnector cables. Easter Monday this year was the UK grid’s greenest day ever, with low carbon sources hitting almost 80%, thanks to sunny spells, blustery winds and low holiday demand.

But when conditions are not ideal, it is invariably gas that picks up the slack. Gas emits significantly less carbon than coal, which has been almost eliminated from the UK power mix and should be gone altogether by 2024, but meeting climate pledges means massively reducing gas usage.

What needs to happen?

The Climate Change Committee (CCC), an independent body launched in 2008, estimates that the carbon intensity of electricity generation needs to fall significantly on the road to net zero. The amount of CO2 emitted per kilowatt hour would have to fall from 220g in 2019 to 10g in 2035.

After crunching the numbers, the energy advisory firm Cornwall Insight believes this requires a massive ramp-up of wind and solar to meet up to 86% of electricity demand inside 15 years.

This would require offshore wind capacity more than quadrupling from 10GW to 44GW, while onshore wind rises by 14GW to between 30GW and 44GW. Solar would need to increase significantly, too, from 15GW to between 22GW and 30GW.

Would that do the job?

Not even close. Renewables need reliable backup because of their volatility. Cornwall Insight’s projection adds in 15GW of capacity supplied by interconnectors, 5GW of nuclear power and a further 16GW of gas or biomass plants that use carbon capture and storage technology to reduce CO2 emissions drastically.

The CCC’s projections include gas plants being converted to run on hydrogen and meeting about 5% of demand.

What about storage?

Storage is absolutely key, to ensure surplus renewable energy can be saved up on sunny, windy days for release when conditions are less favourable. The CCC’s plan, the “balanced pathway” to net zero, envisages a wind and solar-dominated grid backed up by 18GW of battery storage capacity by 2035. Battery capacity is at just 1.3GW now, although 20GW of projects are in the works.

Hydrogen storage is another option, using electrolysis to extract “green hydrogen” from water, which can be kept for long periods of time and then burnt to regenerate the electricity or used to replace fossil fuels in applications such as transport.

This is not to be confused with pumped hydro storage using water, which involves pumping water uphill and then using the downhill flow to generate electricity.

One hope is that electric vehicles can be used as batteries to store electricity and release it as needed, when the cars are not in use. But local and national power grids need to be smarter to make that work, while a surge in the number of EVs also creates extra overall power demand.

How much will this cost?

Cornwall Insight estimates that investment of up to £200bn will be required to bring online the wind, solar and battery power needed for a renewable-powered UK. The CCC says investment must reach £50bn a year by 2030.

Still though, no more gas?

Not quite. The conventional wisdom is that some level of gas capacity needs to remain on the system, even if it barely contributes more than a few hours of supply here and there. The idea is that it stands ready to provide quick bursts of power when required, at short notice.

What about nuclear?

A crane moves building materials into the circular reinforced concrete and steel home of a reactor at Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant in Somerset.

Nuclear power plants cost a lot, take years to build and have many vehement opponents, who say they simply do not count as green energy. However, they are capable of generating a large amount of electricity without carbon emissions.

The big problem is that most nuclear reactors are scheduled for retirement soon. The current fleet offers capacity of about 8.9GW, satisfying about a sixth of UK demand. But more than half of that is due to come offline by the end of 2024 alone, starting with Hunterston B later this year. Assuming there are no further delays, the new Hinkley Point C reactors do not fire up until 2026 and 2027.

The picture has been complicated by reports that the UK government is looking to eject China from nuclear projects. Nuclear enthusiasts hope the 2035 target signals strong backing for EDF’s Sizewell C, in Suffolk, as well as Wylfa Newydd on Anglesey, which has struggled to get going amid investors’ funding concerns. Throw in plans by Rolls-Royce for small modular reactors, colloquially known as mini nukes, and capacity could reach 15GW by 2035.

The gamechanger for nuclear could be something called regulated asset base financing, which the government is exploring. That should offer guaranteed returns for investors, attracting much-needed additional backing.

Is the 2035 target doable?

From a technical perspective, yes, but there are significant policy hurdles to overcome. Energy industry lobbyists point to slow planning consent, infrequent windfarm auctions and insufficient grid infrastructure. Many experts believe the energy market needs to be totally redesigned to adapt to changing needs, potentially overseen by a new body.

Helping consumers reduce demand is also important. Energy suppliers have a role to play there but are under increasing pressure because of the surge in gas prices that has resulted in 12 failing this year, with more expected to follow.

Environment

NiMet predicts 3-day rain, thunderstorms from Monday

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted rain and thunderstorms from Monday to Wednesday across the country.

NiMet’s weather outlook released on Sunday in Abuja envisaged thunderstorms with moderate rains during the morning hours over parts of Yobe, Kano, Jigawa and Bauchi State.

According to it, the remaining parts of the region will be sunny with patches of clouds.

“Thunderstorms with moderate rains are expected during the afternoon or evening hours over parts of
Adamawa, Taraba, Zamfara, Kebbi, Bauchi, Borno, Jigawa and Yobe.

”For the central region, Cloudy skies with sunny intervals will be experienced during the morning hours.

”In afternoon or evening hours, thunderstorms with moderate rains are anticipated over parts of Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, Benue
and Niger States,” it said.

The agency envisaged cloudy skies over the southern region with prospects of light rains over parts of Anambra, Abia, Ebonyi, Imo, Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Rivers during the morning hours.

It predicted moderate rain to continue into the afternoon or evening hours.

According to it, there are prospects of thunderstorms on Tuesday with moderate rains over parts of Adamawa, Gombe and Kaduna States during the morning hours in the northern region.

It forecast thunderstorms with moderate rains during the afternoon or evening hours over parts of Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba, Bauchi, Bauchi, Yobe, Jigawa, Borno and Zamfara.

“For the central region, morning thunderstorms with light to moderate rains are anticipated over parts of Plateau and Nasarawa States.

“Afternoon or evening thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rains are anticipated over most parts
of the region.

“For the southern region, there are chances of morning rains over parts of Abia, Ebonyi, Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Edo, Ondo, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Rivers and Bayelsa States,” it said.

The agency anticipated moderate to heavy rains over the entire region during the afternoon or evening periods.

NiMet predicted morning thunderstorms on Wednesday with rain over parts of Taraba, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kano, Katsina and Kaduna States.

It forecast thunderstorms with moderate rain over parts of Kebbi, Zamfara, Adamawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Borno and Yobe States later in the day.

“For the central region: there are chances of thunderstorms with moderate rains over parts of the Federal Capital Territory, Benue, Plateau, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa and Niger.

“Thunderstorms with moderate rains are expected over parts of the Federal Capital Territory, Nasarawa, Plateau and Benue states during the afternoon to evening periods.

“For the southern region, there are prospects of morning coastal rains over parts of Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa States during the morning hours.

According to it, the remaining parts are expected to be cloudy. Moderate to heavy rains are expected across the Southern region during the afternoon or evening periods.

NiMet urged the public to take adequate precaution as strong winds might precede the rains in areas where thunderstorms are likely to occur.

“Ensure that loose objects are fastened to avoid collision. Driving under heavy rain should be avoided. Disconnect electrical appliances from electrical sockets.

“Stay away from tall trees to avoid impact from falling branches and broken trees. Airline operators are advised to get airport-specific weather reports (flight documentation) from NiMet for effective planning in their operations.

“Residents are advised to stay informed through weather updates from NiMet. Visit our website
www.nimet.gov.ng,” it said.

Environment

Flood: Kano govt, NEMA hold simulation exercise

The Kano state government has teamed up with the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) to carry out a large-scale flood disaster simulation in Wudil Local Government Area.

The exercise featured practical demonstrations of flood evacuation, first aid, and coordination of emergency services, all aimed at improving readiness and protecting lives in vulnerable communities.

Kano State Deputy Governor, Comrade Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo described the initiative as a crucial step to mitigate flooding. “It is often said that prevention is better than cure, and what we are doing today is a preventive measure. While we do not pray for disasters, we must be prepared so that, if anything happens, the level of destruction will be greatly reduced.”

Gwarzo assured NEMA of the state government’s readiness to support similar interventions in the future. “Under the leadership of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, we are committed to working with all relevant agencies. We will do whatever it takes to prevent or at least minimize damage from flooding,” he said.

In her remarks, NEMA Director General, Hajiya Zubaida Umar, commended Kano for hosting the simulation, which also involved participants from Jigawa and Yobe states.

“Our aim is to move from being reactive to being proactive. This exercise is also about identifying gaps in our preparedness and finding ways to improve.”

She praised the collaboration among local emergency committees, Kano State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), and community groups.

Environment

Prepare for extreme weather events, climate variability, NiMet warns

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has advised that there is need to prepare for extreme weather events and climate variability in the coming days due to climate change.

Its Director-General, Prof. Charles Anosike, said the extreme weather events could cause damage to buildings, infrastructure, and farmlands, displacement of people and loss of lives.

The NiMet boss stated this in Abuja on Tuesday at a one-day sensitisation forum organised by NiMet in partnership with First Green White Resources.

Anosike while stating the strategic role of the media in communicating scientific data to the public, noted that the agency’s success depends not only on the accuracy of its forecasts but also on effective communication.

The DG urged the media to collaborate with the agency to make Nigeria better informed, prepared, and resilient in the face of climate variability and extreme weather events.

He said: ‘Reports by the media guide disaster preparedness, food production, and help pilots avoid hazardous situations. The success of NiMet does not rest solely on the accuracy of our scientific data and information but also depends on the effectiveness of the information to the public which is where the media play a crucial role.

‘The management of NiMet is poised to provide quality service in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Tinubu. Within the last year alone, we have sponsored staff to training within and outside the country, and we have taken necessary steps to address issues concerning staff welfare.

‘If we are better informed and better prepared, we will be more resilient in the face of the recent extreme weather events and climate variability’.

The Director of Weather Forecasting Services (DWFS), Prof. Vincent Weli disclosed that plans are ongoing to share weather information to telecommunication subscribers through NiMet’s partnership with MTN.

He said: ‘We just signed an MoU with MTN to be able to move to the next level where weather information can be appearing in the phones of Nigerians. We are not there yet, but we’re almost 70% to disseminate.

‘MTN is the only network provider for now, but we also believe that we will reach out to other network providers so that no matter the network people use, they will be able to have weather information in the language that they understand’.