Environment

The UK’s 2035 net zero electricity target: how could it be achieved?

As Boris Johnson confirmed plans to decarbonise the electricity grid by 2035, the UK was sourcing almost 40% of its power from fossil fuels, underscoring the scale of the challenge ahead.

The government’s target, announced on Monday with less than a month until the start of the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow, is a key component of its pledge to reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

That broader effort will probably involve much more widespread use of electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps in the home, meaning the UK must generate much more power but with far lower emissions. The challenges involved are monumental.

How much electricity do we use?

Demand was just under 35 gigawatts (GW) on Monday but that can rise to about 58GW at peak, on cold winter days. Expressed over the course of a year, the UK used about 330 terawatt hours last year, 5% down on 2019, when the coronavirus pandemic dampened demand. By 2035, demand is projected to reach 460 terawatt hours, an increase of almost 40%.

How green is our electricity now?

Last year, wind and solar produced a record proportion of UK electricity, at 43%, eclipsing fossil fuels, at 40%, for the first time. The rest was largely supplied by nuclear power and imports through subsea interconnector cables. Easter Monday this year was the UK grid’s greenest day ever, with low carbon sources hitting almost 80%, thanks to sunny spells, blustery winds and low holiday demand.

But when conditions are not ideal, it is invariably gas that picks up the slack. Gas emits significantly less carbon than coal, which has been almost eliminated from the UK power mix and should be gone altogether by 2024, but meeting climate pledges means massively reducing gas usage.

What needs to happen?

The Climate Change Committee (CCC), an independent body launched in 2008, estimates that the carbon intensity of electricity generation needs to fall significantly on the road to net zero. The amount of CO2 emitted per kilowatt hour would have to fall from 220g in 2019 to 10g in 2035.

After crunching the numbers, the energy advisory firm Cornwall Insight believes this requires a massive ramp-up of wind and solar to meet up to 86% of electricity demand inside 15 years.

This would require offshore wind capacity more than quadrupling from 10GW to 44GW, while onshore wind rises by 14GW to between 30GW and 44GW. Solar would need to increase significantly, too, from 15GW to between 22GW and 30GW.

Would that do the job?

Not even close. Renewables need reliable backup because of their volatility. Cornwall Insight’s projection adds in 15GW of capacity supplied by interconnectors, 5GW of nuclear power and a further 16GW of gas or biomass plants that use carbon capture and storage technology to reduce CO2 emissions drastically.

The CCC’s projections include gas plants being converted to run on hydrogen and meeting about 5% of demand.

What about storage?

Storage is absolutely key, to ensure surplus renewable energy can be saved up on sunny, windy days for release when conditions are less favourable. The CCC’s plan, the “balanced pathway” to net zero, envisages a wind and solar-dominated grid backed up by 18GW of battery storage capacity by 2035. Battery capacity is at just 1.3GW now, although 20GW of projects are in the works.

Hydrogen storage is another option, using electrolysis to extract “green hydrogen” from water, which can be kept for long periods of time and then burnt to regenerate the electricity or used to replace fossil fuels in applications such as transport.

This is not to be confused with pumped hydro storage using water, which involves pumping water uphill and then using the downhill flow to generate electricity.

One hope is that electric vehicles can be used as batteries to store electricity and release it as needed, when the cars are not in use. But local and national power grids need to be smarter to make that work, while a surge in the number of EVs also creates extra overall power demand.

How much will this cost?

Cornwall Insight estimates that investment of up to £200bn will be required to bring online the wind, solar and battery power needed for a renewable-powered UK. The CCC says investment must reach £50bn a year by 2030.

Still though, no more gas?

Not quite. The conventional wisdom is that some level of gas capacity needs to remain on the system, even if it barely contributes more than a few hours of supply here and there. The idea is that it stands ready to provide quick bursts of power when required, at short notice.

What about nuclear?

A crane moves building materials into the circular reinforced concrete and steel home of a reactor at Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant in Somerset.

Nuclear power plants cost a lot, take years to build and have many vehement opponents, who say they simply do not count as green energy. However, they are capable of generating a large amount of electricity without carbon emissions.

The big problem is that most nuclear reactors are scheduled for retirement soon. The current fleet offers capacity of about 8.9GW, satisfying about a sixth of UK demand. But more than half of that is due to come offline by the end of 2024 alone, starting with Hunterston B later this year. Assuming there are no further delays, the new Hinkley Point C reactors do not fire up until 2026 and 2027.

The picture has been complicated by reports that the UK government is looking to eject China from nuclear projects. Nuclear enthusiasts hope the 2035 target signals strong backing for EDF’s Sizewell C, in Suffolk, as well as Wylfa Newydd on Anglesey, which has struggled to get going amid investors’ funding concerns. Throw in plans by Rolls-Royce for small modular reactors, colloquially known as mini nukes, and capacity could reach 15GW by 2035.

The gamechanger for nuclear could be something called regulated asset base financing, which the government is exploring. That should offer guaranteed returns for investors, attracting much-needed additional backing.

Is the 2035 target doable?

From a technical perspective, yes, but there are significant policy hurdles to overcome. Energy industry lobbyists point to slow planning consent, infrequent windfarm auctions and insufficient grid infrastructure. Many experts believe the energy market needs to be totally redesigned to adapt to changing needs, potentially overseen by a new body.

Helping consumers reduce demand is also important. Energy suppliers have a role to play there but are under increasing pressure because of the surge in gas prices that has resulted in 12 failing this year, with more expected to follow.

Environment

NEMA issues flood alert to Benue, Kogi, Anambra, four other states

The National National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has warned of impending flood in Benue, Kogi, Anambra, Delta, Imo, Rivers and Bayelsa.

The agency advised other States in the central and southern parts to prepare ahead of potential floods that may soon affect communities downstream.

Some of the actions to be taken to mitigate the impact of the flood, according to NEMA, include immediate clearing of blocked drainages, constructing temporary flood barriers and evacuation from flood plains to safe higher grounds.

The agency in a statement on Thursday night by the Head of Press Unit of NEMA, Manzo Ezekiel said: “Following the recent flood that impacted many communities across some states and rising water levels in River Benue and River Niger, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) advises states in the central and southern parts to prepare ahead of potential floods that may soon affect communities downstream.

“The advice has become imperative to activate the State, Local Government Authorities and communities to take necessary actions to mitigate against the risk of flooding and avoid the scale of losses recorded so far in areas that have been impacted, including loss of lives, displacement of communities, and significant damage to property and infrastructures.

“Specifically, the states that are highly probable to the hazard in next few weeks to come are Benue, Kogi, Anambra, Delta, Imo, Rivers and Bayelsa.”

On the expected actions to mitigate the impact, the agency stated: “Some of the actions to be taken include immediate clearing of blocked drainages, constructing temporary flood barriers and evacuating from flood plains to safe higher grounds”.

It also adviced communities to stay informed through weather updates and flood warnings from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA).

“Residents are advised to avoid crossing flooded areas, relocate from flood-prone zones, and cooperate with local emergency services.

“NEMA is working closely with state emergency management agencies and other relevant stakeholders through the National Emergency Operations Centre situated in the Agency’s headquarters to ensure that necessary support, including rescue and relief operations are available to affected communities.

“We urge all residents, especially in vulnerable areas, to heed our warnings and take immediate preventive measures to safeguard lives and property. Preparedness is key in reducing the impact of flooding.”

Business

Dangote Refinery to Power Nigeria’s Economy, End Fuel Scarcity, Save Forex – Gov. Abiodun …praises President Tinubu’s intervention

Governor Dapo Abiodun of Ogun State and Alhaji Aliko Dangote

Ogun State Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, said the commencement of fuel production by the Dangote refinery will strengthen the nation’s economy by eliminating constant shortages and conserving foreign exchange.

Petrol produced from the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery is expected to hit filling stations in the next 48 hours as modalities with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited have been formalized.

Prince Abiodun, in a statement on Tuesday signed by his Chief Press Secretary, Lekan Adeniran, said that with the refinery coming on stream, one of the most significant challenges faced by Nigeria for more than three decades—reliance on fuel importation—will be solved.

According to the statement, with the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries also being prepared to begin production, Nigerians will heave a sigh of relief from constant fuel shortages, while the economy will also receive a boost.

Prince Abiodun praised Alhaji Aliko Dangote for his determination in seeing through the multi-billion dollar projects against all odds.

The governor also commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his intervention in ensuring that the refinery comes on stream during his administration.

He praised the President’s commitment to the revitalization of other refineries in the country, which, he said, will drastically reduce fuel prices when all of them start production.

He said: “This significant achievement marks a transformative milestone not only for you as an entrepreneur but also for Nigeria and the broader African continent. The establishment of this refinery represents a pivotal shift in the energy landscape of the region, showcasing the power of vision, resilience, and unwavering commitment to economic development.

“The Dangote refinery is poised to be a game-changer in the production of petrol, addressing one of the most pressing challenges faced by Nigeria: reliance on imported fuel. This dependency has not only strained our foreign exchange reserves but has also hindered our potential for self-sufficiency.

“By producing petrol locally, the refinery will drastically reduce the outflow of foreign currency, thereby strengthening our economy. This move aligns perfectly with the President Bola Tinubu-led administration’s efforts to achieve economic diversification and reduce reliance on oil exports alone.

“Moreover, the economic impact of the refinery extends beyond just fuel production. It is expected to generate thousands of jobs, both directly and indirectly, thus contributing to the reduction of unemployment rates. The ripple effect of this employment generation will invigorate local economies, stimulate growth in ancillary industries, and enhance the livelihoods of countless families across Nigeria.

“In addition to bolstering local employment and economic activity, the refinery’s operations are expected to enhance energy security in Nigeria. With the capacity to produce a substantial volume of petrol, the country will be better equipped to meet its energy needs, reducing the volatility associated with fuel shortages and price fluctuations.

“This stability will inevitably create a more favorable environment for businesses and attract foreign investments, further boosting economic growth.”

Environment

Speaker Abbas sympathises with Zaria flood victims

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, has described the recent flooding incident in Sabon Gari Local Government Area of Kaduna State as tragic.

The heavy rainfall in the Kogin Mata and Tudun Muntsira, Chikaji areas of Sabon Gari, triggered the flood that occurred on Monday.

The Speaker’s media aide, Musa Krishi, in a statement on Tuesday, said Abbas sympathised with the flood victims and expressed sorrow that such a devastating incident struck at a time when people were striving to sustain their livelihoods.

According to him, “The deluge caused significant property damage and displaced numerous residents.”

Abbas called for urgent intervention to provide relief to those affected, urging the residents to remain calm as the government works to alleviate their suffering.

The Speaker then appealed to the National Emergency Management Agency and the State Emergency Management Agency to swiftly assist the flood victims.

He also advised residents of the affected and surrounding areas to take precautionary measures and follow guidance from relevant authorities regarding flood risks.

Abbas called for coordinated efforts to tackle the broader issue of flooding across the country.