Health

Without Covid-19 jab, ‘reinfection may occur every 16 months’

With winter approaching, scientists are warning that such reinfection could add to the burden on the NHS, some calling for the vaccination programme to be extended to all schoolchildren, including two doses for teenagers.

As Covid-19 infections surge in England, people are increasingly reporting catching Sars-CoV-2 for a second or even third time.

New analysis has suggested that unvaccinated individuals should expect to be reinfected with Covid-19 every 16 months, on average.

“If you’ve got high-level prevalence, and frequent exposure to the virus, as you have in schools, you are going to see more and more people getting reinfected despite having been double vaccinated,” said Stephen Griffin, associate professor of virology at the University of Leeds.

This time last year, the assumption was that although reinfections could occur this was relatively uncommon, with only two dozen or so recorded worldwide.

We now know that natural immunity to Sars-CoV-2 begins to dwindle over time. One Danish study suggested that the under-65s had about 80% protection for at least six months, while the over-65s had only 47% protection.

The arrival of the Delta variant has further complicated the situation.

“Certainly in the healthcare workers that we’ve been studying, there are many people who had moderately decent levels of antibodies who have been, in some cases, previously infected and double-dose vaccinated, who have gone down with symptomatic infections,” said Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.

“I think it is far more common than the kinds of numbers we were used to before.”

ONS data published on 6 October says that among 20,262 Britons who tested positive for Covid-19 between July 2020 and September 2021, there were 296 reinfections – defined as a new positive test 120 days or more after an initial first positive test – with an average (median) time of 203 days between positive tests.

However, the reinfection risk appears to have been higher since May 2021 when Delta took over as the predominant variant.

Further data from the US, where various states have now started tracking and reporting on reinfection rates, supports the idea there is a substantially higher risk of re-infection with Delta.

In Oklahoma, which has a population of about 3.9 million, there were 5,229 reinfections reported during September (equivalent to a reinfection rate of 1,152 per 100,000) and reinfections have risen 350% since May.

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines reinfection as a lab-confirmed case of Covid-19 occurring 90 days or more after a previously lab-confirmed case.

Dr Nisreen Alwan, associate professor in public health, at the University of Southampton, said: “With rising levels of Sars-CoV-2 infections in the UK, many of us are personally aware of children and adults who got reinfected, sometimes after a relatively short period from their first infection.

“We still don’t know much about the risk factors for reinfection but the theoretical assumption that once all the young get it the pandemic will be over is becoming increasingly unlikely.”

To help answer this question, Prof Jeffrey Townsend and colleagues at Yale University School of Medicine analysed known reinfection and immunological data from other coronaviruses, including those that cause Sars, MERS and common colds.

By combining this with antibody and other immunological data from people who had recovered from Sars-CoV-2, they were able to model the risk of Covid-19 reinfection over time.

The research, published in The Lancet Microbe, suggested that reinfections would become increasingly common as immunity waned, particularly when the number of infections was high.

“If we had no infection controls, no one was masking or social distancing, there were no vaccines, we should expect reinfection on a three-month to five-year timescale – meaning that the average person should expect to get Covid every three months to five years,” Townsend said.

Although vaccines are suppressing the level of infections, the UK reported 49,156 Covid cases on Monday, the highest figure since mid-July. Rates are highest among secondary schoolchildren, with an estimated 8.1% of this group thought to have had Covid-19 in the week ending 9 October.

“If you allow it to run amok in any age group then it runs amok in all age groups,” said Townsend.

“The major implications are that if you haven’t been vaccinated, you should get vaccinated, and if you’ve been infected, you should go ahead and get vaccinated anyway, because that will extend the duration of your protection.”

Griffin said: “If you don’t clamp down on prevalence [in schoolchildren], you’ll get the spread of infection and possibly reinfection, which will then potentially spread to parents whose vaccines may be waning, and more critically to grandparents and clinically vulnerable people.”

Health

Akwa Ibom records five monkeypox cases

The Akwa Ibom State Government has raised the alarm over the increasing cases of monkeypox in the state, with five confirmed cases recorded so far.

The government has urged residents to be vigilant as the disease spreads across local government areas.

During an update on Friday, September 6, the state government revealed that out of 30 samples collected for diagnosis, five tested positive. The initial four confirmed cases included three males and one female, aged 2, 4, 12, and 41.

Samuel Etuk, the official in charge of disease surveillance and notification at the state Ministry of Health, confirmed the fifth case and noted that contact tracing efforts are underway while the affected individuals are in isolation.

Etuk provided details at a Media Review Meeting organized by Breakthrough Action Nigeria (BA-N) in collaboration with the State Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme (STBLCP).

He emphasized the importance of community involvement in monitoring the disease, with 10 informants engaged in each of the state’s 368 political wards to report cases to health authorities.

Etuk explained that Mpox can be transmitted from animals to humans (a zoonotic process), as well as through direct or indirect human contact. Transmission can occur through contact with urine, blood, faeces, skin lesions, and oral secretions.

Symptoms of Mpox typically appear after an incubation period of 5 to 21 days and include fever, headaches, swollen lymph nodes, back pain, rashes, and muscle pain. The rashes often start on the face and spread to other parts of the body.

To prevent further spread, residents are advised to avoid contact with sick animals or humans, maintain proper hygiene, and report any suspected cases to health authorities or the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).

Etuk reminded the public that the World Health Organisation (WHO) had declared Mpox a global public health emergency of international concern in August 2024, signaling the need for heightened awareness and preventive measures.

Health

FG to establish blood collection centres in 774 LGAs

The Federal Government has announced plans to establish Blood Collection Centres in all 774 local government areas, including the FCT, to ensure availability of blood during medical emergencies and transfusions.

Abdullahi Haruna, Head, Media and Publicity, National Blood Service Agency (NBSA), made this known in a statement on Saturday in Abuja.

The statement quoted Prof. Saleh Yuguda, the Director-General, NBSA, as reiterating government’s commitment towards addressing blood shortages in the country as the initiative would save lives.

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“We are working tirelessly to ensure that blood needs are adequately addressed, and this initiative is a significant step towards achieving that goal.

“NBSA has partnered with the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) to establish a formidable blood bank at the Corp’s medical facility.

“This collaboration aims to mitigate blood shortages during medical emergencies and provide critical support to sister security agencies,” he said.

He explained that to kickstart the blood collection project, the FCT will host strategic blood collection facilities in easily accessible locations.

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“This move is expected to increase blood donation rates and ensure a steady supply of blood for medical purposes.

“The establishment of blood collection centers across Nigeria is a testament to the government’s commitment to improving the country’s healthcare system.

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“As the project rolls out, Nigerians should expect improved access to blood transfusions and better health outcomes,” he said.

The statement also disclosed that the Deputy Commandant Emeka Okeke of the NSCDC said: “this initiative will play a vital role in addressing blood shortages and saving lives.”

Health

WHO sets targets to end Mpox outbreaks in Africa

The World Health Organisation, WHO, has set a target of halting mpox outbreaks in Africa within the next six months.

This announcement came as the first vaccine shipments are expected to arrive in the Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, in the coming days.

Africa, particularly the DRC, with over 18,000 suspected cases and 629 deaths, has received only a fraction of the vaccines to combat the virus.

At a press briefing on Monday, September 2, WHO Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus expressed confidence in ending the outbreaks, citing strong government leadership and collaborative partnerships.

In August, WHO declared mpox outbreaks a global emergency to spur a more robust international response even though a new strain of mpox known as clade1b, has been identified in many countries, including Burundi, Cameroon, Rwanda, and Kenya.

The potentially more contagious variant of the virus was detected in Congo in May, prompting heightened concerns among health officials.

WHO estimates that approximately 230,000 vaccines could soon be sent to Congo and other affected countries. The WHO is also implementing educational campaigns to inform people in outbreak areas about preventing the spread of the disease.

Africa’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said it aims to receive 380,000 vaccine doses from donors, including the US and the EU, which falls short of the quantity required to eradicate the outbreaks.