6G to Drive 5 Billion Connections by 2040, GSMA Predicts

The Global System for Mobile Communications Association (GSMA) forecasts that sixth-generation mobile technology (6G) will account for over five billion connections worldwide by 2040, according to a new study. However, the transition to 6G will be gradual, with 4G and 5G underpinning global connectivity for years to come.

The GSMA’s Vision 2040 report projects commercial deployment of 6G around 2030, with earlier generations remaining essential – around 2 billion 4G and 3 billion 5G connections still in use by 2040. “4G and 5G will remain critical,” the report stated.

Adoption of 6G will be uneven across regions. Advanced markets like China, Japan, South Korea, US, Europe, Gulf states, Vietnam, and India are expected to reach full penetration, while low- and middle-income regions may lag due to slower infrastructure investment and limited spectrum availability.

Future spectrum demand will be driven by emerging 6G use cases like AI-driven services, immersive communications, and digital twins, requiring ultra-low latency (10ms or less) and wider spectrum channels. Mobile traffic growth will be shaped by changing user behaviour – 10% of users currently generate 60-70% of network traffic, a trend expected to become standard by 2040.

Geography will influence spectrum needs: 83% of mobile traffic occurs in urban areas (5% of landmass), heightening congestion risk without additional spectrum. The GSMA urges forward-looking spectrum policies ahead of key global decisions at the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-27).

A balanced approach is needed: invest in 4G/5G networks alongside 6G prep, warns GSMA, noting delays in spectrum allocation could cause congestion in densely populated areas.