NBS: Inflation Rises to 15.93% in May Amid Geopolitical Tension

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.93% in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase in the country’s annual inflation trajectory. Business leaders and economic experts point to an accumulation of external shocks including Middle East conflicts and domestic bottlenecks as the primary drivers behind the mounting cost of living.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates a marginal increase from the 15.69% recorded in April 2026.

This extends an upward trend that began in March, following a brief dip to 15.06% earlier in the year. Despite the recent surge, current figures remain considerably lower than the peak of 26.06% recorded during the same period last year.

The organized private sector notes that the closure of critical maritime trade routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, alongside ongoing international friction, has significantly impacted global petroleum trade. Domestically, these disruptions manifest as high fuel costs and elevated prices for liquefied petroleum gas (cooking gas), heavily squeezing both manufacturing operations and household incomes.

Structural agricultural deficits also remain a major hurdle, as agrarian insecurity has displaced farming communities, reduced cultivated landmass, and hampered supply chains, keeping year-on-year food inflation elevated at 16.96%. Furthermore, teething problems with automated port clearance systems, such as the National Single Window platform, have led to severe cargo backlogs and costly demurrage fees, which are ultimately passed down to local consumers.

While month-on-month data suggests that the absolute velocity of price increases slowed slightly in May, core inflation which strips out volatile agricultural and energy sectors accelerated on a monthly basis, signaling deep-seated inflationary pressures across the broader domestic economy.