US-Iran Peace Accord Expected to Drive Nigerian Petrol Prices Down to ₦900 Per Litre

The price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) in Nigeria could slide to as low as ₦900 per litre in the coming days, following a major breakthrough in Middle East diplomacy and a subsequent crash in global crude oil prices.

Developments surrounding a newly brokered peace accord between the United States and Iran have triggered a sharp decline in global energy markets. Crude oil, which peaked above $120 per barrel in April during the height of the three-month conflict, plummeted to approximately $87 per barrel over the weekend. The impending reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz has fueled widespread optimism among fuel marketers that retail prices for petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel will ease significantly.

The geopolitical hostilities, which began on February 28, had forced Nigerian pump prices to skyrocket from roughly ₦830 per litre to as high as ₦1,300 per litre. With the conflict drawing to a close, domestic market operators anticipate that major local suppliers, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, will soon adjust their pricing structures downward to reflect the new market realities.

An internal source at the Dangote refinery noted that while a drop to ₦900 per litre is highly feasible if crude prices stabilize at current lows, the facility must first process existing inventories purchased when crude costs were much higher. The refinery had previously trimmed its gantry price to ₦1,250 per litre on May 30 when crude slipped below the $100 mark.

The Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has supported these projections, stating that a fully operational Strait of Hormuz will drive retail prices well below the ₦1,000 threshold. Independent market indicators reveal that some local distributors have already started lowering their ex-depot prices below the ₦1,250 benchmark in anticipation of a looming price war as cheaper fuel imports hit the domestic supply chain.

The diplomatic breakthrough was confirmed over the weekend via an official announcement from Washington, detailing a bilateral agreement aimed at dismantling regional nuclear risks and immediately restoring unrestricted commercial shipping access through the Hormuz Strait.