Nigeria Exported 55.4 Million Barrels of Crude in Two Months Amid Dangote Refinery Shortage

New data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows that the country exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in January and February 2026, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery continued to struggle with insufficient local supply.

According to the figures, Nigeria shipped 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February. Total crude production for the two-month period stood at 81.94 million barrels, leaving about 26.55 million barrels for domestic refineries.

Production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, with exports at 1.01 million bpd. In February, output declined to 1.31 million bpd while exports averaged 860,000 bpd.

The strong export figures come at a time when the 650,000-bpd Dangote refinery is facing an acute shortage of domestic crude, forcing it to import from international markets despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude producer.

Industry sources said a significant portion of produced crude continues to be exported under existing agreements, leaving the Lagos-based refinery with supply gaps under the naira-for-crude arrangement.

Data obtained from a senior management source at the refinery indicated that between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, the plant received only 29.21 million barrels of crude, compared to an estimated requirement of 108.74 million barrels to run at full capacity. That represents a supply performance of about 26.9 per cent.

The refinery requires approximately 19.77 million barrels monthly. Monthly receipts during the period ranged from a low of 3.6 million barrels in the first half of March to a high of 6.45 million barrels in November.

In response, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) said it was leveraging its global crude trading network to source third-party crude for the refinery at competitive international prices.

An NNPC source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, acknowledged a shortfall, explaining that some volumes of the company’s daily crude output had been pre-sold in the past. “That is causing some form of distortion, but that does not mean NNPC will not meet up. The company is looking at other alternative sources,” the source said.

The situation has contributed to recent fuel price volatility. The Dangote refinery raised petrol pump prices above N1,300 per litre before reducing to the current N1,250 per litre, citing high crude costs and the refusal of local producers to supply adequate feedstock.

Meanwhile, the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) called for increased crude allocation to local refineries, noting that modular refineries would struggle to turn a profit without regular domestic supply.

“If we get crude, of course we will make gains,” said CORAN Publicity Secretary Eche Idoko. “If the oil producers give us feedstock, we will make gains. That’s how good the refining business is.”