Business

IMF openly criticises UK government tax plans

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has openly criticised the UK government over its plan for tax cuts, warning that the measures are likely to fuel the cost-of-living crisis.

In an unusually outspoken statement, the IMF said the proposal was likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.

Markets have already raised alarm over the plans, sending the pound plunging.

The government says the measures will kickstart economic growth.

On Wednesday morning, sterling fell by 0.7% to $1.06 after the IMF raised its concerns. It comes after the currency hit a record low of around $1.03 on Monday.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the country’s biggest tax package in 50 years on Friday. But the £45bn cut has sparked fears that government borrowing could surge along with interest rates.

The IMF works to stabilise the global economy and one of its key roles is to act as an early economic warning system.

It said it understood the package aimed to boost growth, but it warned that the cuts could speed up the pace of price rises, which the UK’s central bank is trying to bring down.

“Furthermore, the nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality,” it said.

‘Re-evaluate’

The IMF said that the government publishing a fiscal plan on 23 November gave it an opportunity to “re-evaluate” tax measures, “especially those that benefit high income earners”.

The UK government proposals would scrap the top rate of income tax, and end a cap on bankers’ bonuses, among other measures.

The announcement on Friday sparked days of financial turmoil, as investors dumped the pound and UK debt. Some of the country’s biggest lenders also suspended mortgage deals amid the uncertainty.

The Treasury said: “We are focused on growing the economy to raise living standards for everyone.”

It added that Mr Kwarteng was due to publish his medium-term plan for the economy on 23 November, which would include ensuring that UK debt falls as a share of economic output in the medium term.

Meanwhile, Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister and close ally of Prime Minister Liz Truss, criticised the IMF’s statement.

He told the Daily Telegraph: “The IMF has consistently advocated highly conventional economic policies. It is following this approach that has produced years of slow growth and weak productivity.

“The only way forward for Britain is lower taxes, spending restraint, and significant economic reform.”

BBC economics editor Faisal Islam says the IMF’s “stinging rebuke… reflected similar concerns from the world’s major finance ministries that a crisis brewing in the UK could spill over into a global slowdown”.

Adnan Mazarei, a former deputy director at the IMF, said it was common for the foundation to make strong statements on “emerging market countries with problematic policies but not often G7 countries”.

He said it showed the IMF was worried that tax cuts were permanent and that the budget would have to be financed by more borrowing. It was also concerned about inflation rising which would require interest rate increases by the Bank of England.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme “the fear” was the Bank of England and the Treasury were not working together properly for the benefit of the UK economy.

He said: “There is also a sense of problems in the country’s economic management and their ability to handle issues, which could lead to problems of inflation [and] financial market difficulties… for example we’ve seen problems in the mortgage markets which will hurt the UK household.”

On Tuesday, the Bank of England signalled that it was prepared to ramp up interest rates in response to the slump in the value of the pound.

Its chief economist Huw Pill said the Bank “cannot be indifferent” to the developments of the past days.

He said the Bank would have to deliver a “significant monetary policy response” to protect sterling.

Speaking to BBC Two’s Newsnight, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers described the situation facing the UK as “very ominous”.

“I can’t in all honesty remember a time when a set of policy announcements from a G7 country elicited so negative a response both from markets and from economic experts,” he said.

“When a country sees its interest rates rise by [as much as they have] in two days at the same time that its currency is falling in a major way, that is a sign that there has been a major loss of market credibility and market confidence.

“The kind of warning that Britain received from the IMF today is a kind of warning that comes much more frequently to emerging markets with new governments than to a country like Britain.”

‘Fiscal prudence’

Asked about the UK’s plans at an event in Washington, White House economic adviser Brian Deese said he had not been surprised by the negative reaction of the markets and that it was important to focus on “fiscal prudence, fiscal discipline”, the Reuters news agency reported.

Moody’s credit rating agency said on Wednesday that the UK’s plan for “large unfunded tax cuts” was “credit negative” and would lead to higher, persistent deficits “amid rising borrowing costs [and] a weaker growth outlook”. Moody’s did not change the UK’s credit rating.

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government must “urgently lay out how it will fix the problems it created through its reckless decisions to waste money in an untargeted cut in the top rate of tax”.

“Waiting until November [when the fiscal plan is published] is not an option,” she said. Instead, “the government must urgently review the plans made in their fiscal statement last week”.

She added: “This statement from the IMF should set alarm bells ringing in government and make it clear that they need to act now.”

Analysis box by Dharshini David, global trade correspondent

This is an exceptionally blunt warning from the IMF, indicating that Kwasi Kwarteng’s £45bn mini-Budget spree may not only have been ill-judged and risks sharper rate rises – but could also increase income inequality.

How likely is the latter?

The Truss government’s growth plan centres on tax cuts for the better off, in the hope it will benefit wider society by boosting investment, innovation and job creation.

But a 2020 study by academics at the London School of Economics examined the impact of such policies in wealthy countries over five decades – and found they failed to significantly boost growth or jobs. They were more likely, the study claimed, to widen the gap between rich and poor.

At the very start of the Conservative leadership campaign, a top IMF official told me large-scale universal tax cuts in the UK would be a “mistake” .

Instead, as the energy price crisis has intensified, it’s been calling for measures that are targeted towards the least well-off. And it’s openly urging the government to focus on that when the Chancellor reveals the next instalment of his plans in November.

There’s little indication so far those calls will be heeded.

IMF statement in full:

“We are closely monitoring recent economic developments in the UK and are engaged with the authorities.

“We understand that the sizable fiscal package announced aims at helping families and businesses deal with the energy shock and at boosting growth via tax cuts and supply measures.

“However, given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.

“Furthermore, the nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality.

“The November 23 budget will present an early opportunity for the UK government to consider ways to provide support that is more targeted and re evaluate the tax measures, especially those that benefit high income earners.”

Business

Nigeria’s total debt hits N87.37trn in Q3 2023 — DMO

Director General of Debt Management Office (DMO), Ms. Patience, on Friday, disclosed that the country’s debt stock stands at N87.37 trillion as at 30th September 2023.

Ms. Oniha who disclosed this during the interactive session held at the instance of House Committee on Appropriations chaired by Hon. Abubakar Bichi, however, noted that while justifying the rationale behind the borrowing spree, she informed the Parliament that projects implemented by Federal Government during the three previous recessions were funded through borrowing.

She said: “Let me speak a bit about public debt as you requested in the letter inviting us

“The first point is that we have run budget deficit for many years for which the DMO has been raising funds locally and internationally to support the budget.

“The point I would like to make is that as the level of borrowings increases you have to service them so debt services increase also.

“Again, we run budget deficits because we have projects and programmes in the budget that the government wants to run. If we go back from 2015 and 2016, we know we have been through about two or three recessions. So, a lot of that bringing the economy out of recession was funded from borrowing.

“The DMO’s role is to manage that debt and make sure it is sustainable and that there is no default because borrowing is not a bad thing but when you borrow you use it well.

“Debt has been growing largely from new borrowings. You see the MTEF for instance that you have approved, it has borrowings in each of the years of 8.7, 10.2 and N11.58 trillion just to buttress the point that as you increase the funds the debt stock grows.

“So, it also also growing because we have issued Promissory Notes and again like I said, Ways and Means advances. We usually like to say that debt stock relative to our GDP is not the issue.

“That has grown from 23 percent in March to about 40 percent in June. The same way the debt stock grew.

“But we need to do, to focus on debt service revenue which is very high. That is why I said the discussions about revenue, we cannot stop talking about them enough.

“So, apart from trying to generate as much revenue as we should, what else should we be doing? We are advocates for a number of initiatives being taken. Should be privatized if those projects can be better managed. You can attract capital. Do the private-public partnership so not everything is on the budget. Because when you put everything on the budget, you cannot get a deficit for which you need to borrow.

“We should strongly support the Fiscal Reform and Tax Policy Committee, we really need to get that working to change the story of us.

“For this year 2023 the DMO was to provide about N8.8 trillion, 7 trillion of that is domestic; meaning we borrow it here on naira. And then there is 1.7 trillion that ordinarily in normal times, we would have issued Euro bonds or from other sources.

“So, out of the domestic of 7 trillion as we speak, we have raised the full amount. So, you can say we have raised a significant amount to fund this budget.

“If the international markets had been covered and we were investing in counties with similar ratings like Nigeria by now we would also have issued a Euro bond.

“We have been extremely supportive of funding the budget and the operations of government,” Ms. Oniha noted.

While speaking on funding of some of the proposed infrastructural projects, she disclosed that the present administration is to ensure direct support with the SUKUK.

According to her, “This year some of that 7 trillion we issued it by way of SUKUK and you will soon begin to see the roads across the FCT.

“Having spoken to what is in the 2023 of which we have raised 7 trillion out of the 8.8 trillion. So we know that in 2024, from the MTEF there is 8.749 trillion.

“So, the levels of borrowing are still high but I think as the MTEF is a rolling document, as the picture looks better on revenues maybe the numbers would be lower.”

Speaking earlier, Chairman, House Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Abubakar Bichi explained that the interactive session with heads of MDAs was aimed at addressing strategies for the rising inflation, reducing the burden of Nigeria’s debt profile, sectoral budgetary allocations, and the dynamics of budget releases.

“Others are economic diversification strategies, revenue generation forecasts, and any useful information that will facilitate the enactment of the bill and effective implementation of the Appropriations Act, 2024.

“Amidst concerns to address the infrastructural gap in the country, eliminate poverty, and generally achieve the 8-Point Renewed Hope Agenda, there is a need to ensure that all loose ends to revenue are tied, as this can have a gross impact on the government’s ability to implement the 2024 Appropriation Bill when passed.

“While the revised MTEF and FSP showed that revenue-generating efforts by the present administration are already yielding fruit, more needs to be done to ensure that government-owned enterprises optimize their revenue-generating potential.

“In light of the above, this interaction is designed to engage relevant stakeholders to provide insight on the perspective of the budget and enable the Committee to play its coordinating role in ensuing allocative efficiency in the 2024 appropriation process,” Hon. Bichi noted.

Business

PenCom Recovers N24.8b UnremittedFunds

The National Pension Commission, PenCom, recovered N24.8 billion of funds unremitted by employers in the third quarter of 2023.

Oguche Agudah, Chief Executive Officer of Pension Funds Operators’ Association of Nigeria made the declaration on Friday in Lagos.

He spoke at a media parley with the theme: “At the dawn of 20 years of pension reform, what are the gains?”

Mr Agudah said PenCom recovered N23.3 billion of such funds in the third quarter of 2022, while it recovered N2.23 billion in the third quarter of 2021.

He said also that the pensions industry recorded an Asset under Management of N17.35 trillion in the second quarter of 2023.

It made investments of N349.97 billion in infrastructure in the second quarter of 2023, up from the N333.02 billion invested in the corresponding quarter of 2022, Agudah added.

Investments in infrastructure, he also said, represented 2.02 per cent of total investments made in the second quarter of 2023.

Mr Agudah said the industry also invested N1.54 trillion in the equities market in the third quarter of 2023.

This, he explained, represented 8.88 per cent of total investments, as against the N964.84 billion invested in the corresponding quarter of 2022.

He said the pension industry would focus more on micro-pensions and revise its investment guidelines in 2024 when it celebrates the 20th year of pension reforms.

Business

Nigeria, China sign pact on $150m battery plant

The Federal Ministry of Power and the China Ministry of Ecology and Environment, on Friday, supervised the signing of an agreement for the construction of a $150m lithium-ion battery manufacturing plant in Nigeria by a Chinese firm.

Parties in the deal signed the agreement in Dubai at the United Nations Climate Conference, also known as COP28, according to a statement issued in Abuja on Friday by the Rural Electrification Agency.

The statement read in part, “The Rural Electrification Agency of Nigeria and the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure are poised to make a significant stride in climate action by signing a groundbreaking cooperation agreement with the SHENZEN LEMI Technology Development Company.

“The agreement was signed on December 8, 2023, under the leadership of the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Power and the China Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

“The partnership will facilitate the establishment of a lithium-ion battery manufacturing and processing factory in Nigeria. This initiative is backed by a $150m investment from LEMI, with operations scheduled to commence in phases, starting from the second quarter of 2024.”

The REA stated that the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment, in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Power in Nigeria, expressed enthusiasm for being part of the agreement.

“The signing of the cooperation agreement is anticipated to serve as a pioneer initiative for the Light and Belt Initiative in Africa, aligning with global efforts to drive climate technology development and transfer.

“This collaboration will strengthen NASENI’s mandate under the agency’s new leadership to manage the research and development of capital goods, production and reverse engineering to enhance local mass production of standard parts and services for the nation’s technological advancement with a special focus on the Nigerian electricity sector.

“Furthermore, the collaboration underscores REA’s commitment to bridging the climate technology gap and combating the adverse effects of climate change. It also aligns with Nigeria’s ambitious goals of achieving universal electricity access by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060,” the agency stated.

It further explained that the partnership would foster the development and transfer of climate technology, promote indigenous industrialisation, facilitate commercialisation, enhance public-private cooperation, and contribute to job creation, economic growth, and the extractive industry in Nigeria.

“Recognising the crucial role of energy storage in the transition to renewable energy sources, the investment in lithium-ion energy storage manufacturing signifies a significant step towards achieving a low-carbon economy,” the REA stated.