Momodu Outlines Atiku’s 2027 Strategy, Predicts Tough Race for Tinubu

An intense political contest is shaping up for the 2027 presidential election, with predictions that President Bola Tinubu will face a significant challenge from the opposition.

African Democratic Congress (ADC) chieftain, Dele Momodu, outlined this outlook during a recent interview on Nevon Media with journalist Oseni Rufai. He expressed strong optimism regarding the prospects of Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress.

According to Momodu, a strategic consolidation of votes in the North, paired with competitive performances in the South, could secure a victory for Atiku over both the incumbent President Tinubu and Nigeria Democratic Congress candidate, Peter Obi.

The Northern Strategy and Constitutional Thresholds

Momodu emphasized that the path to victory relies heavily on meeting the country’s strict constitutional requirements, which mandate that a winning candidate secure the highest total votes cast and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states.

“Atiku will secure at least 25% of the votes in 26 states while also dominating the North, which is where the bulk of the votes are,” Momodu stated.

The strategy relies on a unified northern front. Momodu noted a significant political shift from the 2023 cycle, pointing out that regional dynamics have evolved to prevent major internal competition against Atiku in the region. He highlighted that Rabiu Kwankwaso is now positioned as a running mate, effectively consolidating the northern voting bloc. Momodu suggested that the region is heavily discouraging political fragmentation, viewing competing northern candidacies unfavorably.

Southern Expectations and Electoral Dynamics

Beyond a dominant performance in the North, the strategy requires capturing vital states in the South. Momodu specifically highlighted Osun State as a key battleground where he expects Atiku to compete strongly.

This projection stands in contrast to the current political landscape in Osun State, where Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party has repeatedly endorsed President Tinubu. However, Momodu dismissed the impact of the governor’s alignment, insisting that the electorate, rather than state leadership, will dictate the final ballot outcome.

The early positioning comes as political actors begin aligning themselves well ahead of the 2027 general elections. In the previous 2023 presidential election, Tinubu secured the presidency with approximately 37% of the total vote, built on a strong showing in the South-West and key balancing votes across other geopolitical zones.