NBS to Adjust December Inflation Data Amid Technical Spike

The National Bureau of Statistics has announced it will “normalise” Nigeria’s inflation rate for December 2025, following a projected sharp increase driven solely by statistical rebasing rather than actual economic changes.

The NBS disclosed this during a virtual meeting with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group on Monday, explaining that the expected jump in the Consumer Price Index is due to base effects from recently updating the inflation calculation series.

Statistician-General Adeyemi Adeniran clarified that the spike stems from rebasing the CPI to a 2024 reference year, replacing the previous 2009 base. He emphasised that such base effects are common in statistical practice and do not reflect changes in economic fundamentals.

“This spike arises from the base effect. It is artificial and arithmetic rather than reflective of structural changes in the economy,” Adeniran stated.

The NBS plans to apply a normalization method recommended in international guidelines, using an average of CPI data from January to December 2024 as the reference point, instead of December 2024 alone. This approach aims to present a clearer picture of actual price movements.

Director of Price Statistics Dr. Ayo Anthony noted that the bureau consulted technical partners, including the IMF, World Bank, and Central Bank of Nigeria, before deciding on the adjustment.

NESG CEO Dr. Tayo Aduloju highlighted the importance of accurate inflation data as Nigeria shifts from economic stabilization to consolidation, warning that misleading signals could undermine policy gains.

The NBS reaffirmed its commitment to transparency and regular stakeholder engagement, adding that the base effect issue will not recur from January 2026 onward.